bingo..
UK ECONOMY
(266 posts) (11 voices)-
The uk over the last decade or so has defied all expectations of a difficult time ahead but finally it appears to be coming. Brexit may have been the final pin but there were so many circling it appeared inevitable to me.
The uk for so long has been a great irony to me. The green land where heritage, tradition and continuity is so cherished and yet so un practiced by her fiscal system. According to me over the last decade the uk has been the most radical at guaranteeing house prices and enabling credit and continuing down her path of structural imbalance powered by the single giant engine of perpetual 10% house price increases even as earnings lagged by ever greater amounts. A radicalized economy i argue is the uk.. Weaponized or whatever the correct terminology should be. She is not alone of course with many states perusing the alchemists dream of endless prosperity (and consumption) from rising house prices but she is one of worst in terms of the number of structural failings. It seems to me that its no one single structural issue that does the damage but several coming together over a long period of time.
I want to be clear that over the very long term i am bullish for the uk as she has a system of laws and people that understand which way is up (in terms of wealth creation) more than any other european land. But first must come the adjustment. Adjustments usually come hard and fast. They are painful and deep but from the ashes the underlying structure will support future prosperity. First the pain must come. I suggest its duration is likely to last a decade or so.
First the short and medium term adjustment to the rest of the world.
In the near term its very difficult for me to be optimistic for the uk and i say that as a brexit voter. (The two are very different issues and imo have zero linkage other than uncertainty helping to unearth to the deep structural cracks across the uk's economy).
The UK today has huge trade deficits, largest in the dm world and structural ie not helped much by prior episodes of gbp debasement, she enjoys the largest fiscal deficits in dm world (set to increase according to Hammond) record breaking current account deficits needing huge rest of world capital inflows to sustain her. Tax revenues that are now highly dependent on house prices increasing. If when house price increases stop the penny will drop immediately that the uk is in a disastrous fiscal mess. An unimaginable shift would need to occur in higher taxes for corporates and the public in order to prevent double digit fiscal deficits. (MARK MY WORDS ON THIS).
The banks (and gov guarantees) are very exposed to nominal declines hence sterling must be heavily debased and devalued on the medium and long term. Near term a bounce of course.
A heavily debased sterling should logically create inflation quite rapidly.. what it does to capital inflows will be crucial. If inflows stop and the UK's property market stalls the boe will be forced to add liquidity to the GBP system further weakening sterling and therefore increasing inflation. If the boe prints enough it can hold up uk property prices (and therefore uk banks loan books) in gbps.. but in other currencies uk asset prices could get very ugly indeed. Mean reversion time.. it's been a decade or more in the making after all..
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Rich, it's perverse IMHO. With the interest rate cut from 0.5% to 0.25% it's hardly likely to create a surge in spending from those holding onto cash (ie) the reduction in interest received.
Similarly, banks can't make money at super low interest rates so the UK ones will remain basket cases for the time being.
Totally agree that inflation has now become the holy grail. Doubtless the Masters of the Universe will be praying for some to reduce the mountains of debt they have created.
Otherwise it's RSJ's solution we discussed a few years back (ie) the bonds are cancelled and "poof" the debt goes away!JMK
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Ex GS now BOE Broad Bent flagging up possible etf index buys, lower rates and more qe and and corporate bond buying.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-boe-broadbent-idUKKCN10G198
On the mire whiff of an economic pause, let alone downturn they add ms. On the whiff of asset market down turn they add ms. Note the commodities. Note Anto GL WTI based.. Im increasingly sure we are marching off to inflation. We have to suppose the ECB and BOJ will act soon. The ex GS Draghi at the ECB has a clear mandate now that the german court have waived their last objection. GS's Clinton soon to be in the White House. Buying GS's stock here also not a bad tech set up btw.
Hengseng moving fast over night btw..
Rich
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Bingo, nabbed the beta as i bought more physical etf gold listed in pounds pre carney's latest madness. Gold in pounds beat stocks.. an noteworthy development! Price is sending signals of rising inflation expectations.. Note in the 1970s the only traders that made money were commodity & FX traders. The largest commodity trader in the world is GL and look at her stock price. I not letting her go, the back into her entry near perfect.
Productivity falling capex falling, high tax property market failing and he simply prints more and expands the assets he places on his balance sheet.. Any school child studing gcse economics should know thats the sure fire way to create inflation especially if the transmission system to encourage more loan creation is broken, which it is.. So staflation in the uk beckons.. Policy makers will fiddle the stats and then pretend to be surprised. The truth is they must aim towards super high inflation as its only way to tackle the debts and save the banks through nominal asset price rises. The lowering of base rates unfortunate for the banks however.. nominal low rates though might not last long here now as inflation is guaranteed.
HSEG doing very nicely over night. Note the results of HSBC and Stan.. much lower bad loans in asia.. Asia has bottomed and in the reflation should be the beta from here.
JPY gold extremely attractive. Carry the jpy of course. I was knocked out of the usd at 105.2 from my entry at 100.5. I reentered last night at 100.8. It could be a little early but certainly we have falling momentum to the down side and the level is fairly key around here. I will give it some room here as the macro situation is so bad in japan that they will have to act even if simply to weaken the jpy via a "swiss" approach if needed.
A comment on RBS.. we spoke about rbs in 2007/2008.. and the craziness of nationalization by GB.. the horror story continues in spite of all the ms creation. How did the regulators get it so wrong is a good question. I would be more inclined to prosecute the public servants that fell asleep at the regulation wheel than i would fred the shred.
Anyway soon they will turn a profit as carney powers the uk towards inflation. In terms of text book theory he is actually doing a reasonable thing as first mover has the advantage. The uk is effectively first mover. If May can follow her own advise now and fiscally help steer uk smes towards investment perhaps we can see the worst of the hot money absorbed into growth. I doubt it but at least she is making the right noises in this respect. Carney buying more corporate debt is not the way and neither is it to lower rates but there we are. May needs to act quickly now imo.
Rich
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The maths on uk property is scary indeed..
Carney is caught here..
1) Lower rates will kill the banks and their margins.
2) More qe will trash the pound and raise stock prices but house prices? With fiscal taxes so high on the asset class its questionable whether it will assist house prices. It may instead simply drive sterling lower and lead to inflation.
3) May is correct that the problem is a lack of investment and low productivity. If Carney pours more ms on a high import, low prod low capex economy = inflation (stagflation) guaranteed.
What to do?
Tricky.. The transmission process is broken as lower rates when at zero squeezes margins further and banks will constrict lending as margins so low and capital requirements get squeezed and bad loans impair the balance sheet so fast.
All i can come up with Mr Carney is for the BOE to increase its direct lending to risky businesses and smes.. They could create a fannie mae for sub prime commercial lending. The boe would buy the cds from the banks that create them. They would have to be over the counter as each one is different though credit agencies would need to come up with some sort of score on them to allow pricing, rough pricing i would add.
You can see we are at the bottom of the barrel here.
But make no mistakes a deflationary collapse in uk housing would also kill the banks so of the two evils of stagflation vs deflation policy makers would always chose stagflation.
Ie in summary though the upside is extremely limited i do believe the BOE will simply print more and move down the food chain of assets it places on its balance sheet.
Rich
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Hey Coach, good to hear from you! At least I am not talking to myself.
Houses are a leveraged purchase, by and large, so the determinant is the cost of capital. As an example, my niece is currently buying a flat in North London. She and her partner are able to borrow 5 times their joint incomes and the mortgage rate is 1.65%! So on a £500,000 mortgage that’s £8250 pa in interest.
If the mortgage rate was 15% that would be £75,000 pa interest. Then they would not be borrowing the quantum they are.
JMK
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BoE rate cut could ‘destabilise’ the pound
1 August 2016: Peter Chatwell, head of European rates strategy at Mizuho says the Bank of England will under deliver on rates and QE on Thursday. Instead he thinks we will see things like credit easing and funding for lending.
Market Insight from IG and the first time I have heard the view that QE has contributed to the divisions in society, which is something I believe.
Doubtless, the Masters of the Universe and global elite will in due course advance this view and their remedy.
In this regard, my own opinion is that the best form of "helicopter money" will be for the FCA and BOE to relax the rules on mortgage lending, allowing the self employed, over 50s and so on to access mortgage finance again. Infrastructure works etc simply don't come close to achieving the aim of allowing people to improve their living standards.
JMK
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UK interest rates held at 0.5%
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36794521
So despite Project Fear, Carney decides to keep his ammunition dry.
Good move.
JMK
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An excellent article from Liam Halligan in today's Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/09/dont-blame-our-current-financial-woes-on-brexit/
I am minded of the decision in 1987 to lower interest rates when it was not needed and precipitating runaway asset prices which then fell steeply. All this from the Master of the Universe who misunderstood the people he is employed to serve.
JMK
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UK Construction continues her trend... ie downwards..
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=08d07a8d-d51c-4981-85b4-b07b59dd6877
Of course the blame.. Brexit!
Nothing to do with global demand, multiples to income or anything else..
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Some pretty diabolic nos from the uk today..
Rather than put them up you can look for yourselves.
http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/
Highlights, manufacturing output -1.8% yoy.. total trade balance inc good and services pretty unchanged end feb. (in spite of the lower gbp). The Uk needs a weaker pound.
What isnt shown here is the current acc deficit for the uk.. Now -7% of gdp! Thats the highest since records began and the highest of any g10 country. On the plus side it means capital flows from the rest of the world to the uk are immense. Mainly its construction focused. On the downside much of this investment is as loans into the uk. Certainly whether loans or cash the uk has obligations to the foreign capital and this is generally a bad thing long term as the capital flow reverses over time plus interest of course.
Its been a golden period. World leverage has dramatically expanded and the uk as the center of historic trade flows has been a huge recipient of these hot money flows.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/current-account
From 2012 its accelerated once again.
This article below is a little dumb as it presents the details and then arrives at an unrelated conclusion that government deficits are better.
http://www.cityam.com/238111/the-madness-of-chancellor-george-
The point they badly to make is that domestic deficits are better than foreign private capital obligations. Possibly they are correct but both are far from ideal.
To my macro mind, the uk is perfectly positioned for a currency devaluation as it has done throughout its history so many times before. Yet another candidate for an fx debasement strategy. I'm sure carney wouldn't disappoint given he wants to expand the uk's financial sector.
Rich
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Whether it was about brexist or not only ds can say for sure but this aside if you didnt watch this interview its worth a watch. Worth a watch as imo its one of the most inspired political interviews for quite some time. I was left feeling what a loss for the uk that this man is no longer in government.
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Rich, Bloomberg are on the money here IMHO. In part due to the UK having become a low wage economy reliant on migrant labour.
Also the property market is slowing. Ironically, the main reasons it is slowing are the tax hikes introduced. Stamp duty now on a modest house in Hammersmith and Fulham costing a very unmodest £1.5m is £93,750! People simply don’t have that level of savings to defray the cost so are staying put. Similarly further down the ladder a £600 - £700K purchase will incur a £20 - £25K bill, which simply slows the process the down of trading up.
To add to this the new “second property” increase in stamp duty of 3% above the levels used in the above calculations.
http://www.whatmortgage.co.uk/news/stamp-duty-surcharge-questions-answered/
So in summary these taxes are dragging on the consumer spending model which will increase the significance in any upward movement of the price of oil.
JMK
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There appear to me a few "pressure cooker" trades out there or in financial circles known as asymmetric trades.
One is bullion. Whether you are a believer in bullion manipulation or not and whether you are a dollar bull or not it doesnt matter. The chart says it all. Long periods of extremely low volatility coming off the back of a huge secular volatile multi year move. Technically the price base appears in and we should naturally expect volatility to rise sharply as soon as price makes her move on a breakout. Which has already occurred depending on your currency of choice.
Another trade would be the uk. The uk is surely the champion of the counter mises thesis that you cannot overcome a depression by more credit expansion. The UK has done precisely this on a ponzi wealth creation scheme. Here today an over view of the uk from bloomberg. She has been the alpha to risk on in recent years (not her stock market which has been the - beta to global indexes). She is likely to be the - alpha if and when the bear market starts. Sterling will likely lead the way as doubtless Carney wont stand idly by. But conversely to Wilson's misleading quote it will change "the pound in your pocket".
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-27/cheap-oil-bails-out-free-spending-u-k-consumers
Rich
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The ftse100 continues to roll over and perform very badly.
http://www.capitalsynthesis.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/ftse100-16yr.jpg
Im not sure there is an inverse here between misallocation of capital towards housing bubbles away from equities but it seems to be possible to me. In an economy where capital is consistently so richly rewarded to hold property assets why risk capital in complicated commercial ventures? Policy makers and central bankers have driven capital relentlessly towards built assets like this providing tax and credit advantages to do so.
The divergent performance between asset classes is compelling in that it tells us something is deeply wrong here. How this will unwind is anyone's guess. Either property is massively over valued and must come down in price or equities are massively undervalued and should rise in price relative to property but policy moves are crucially important here.
The latest changes to pensions allowing early withdrawal (from generally equity and bond funds) to allow pis to invest in property is yet another policy incentive to direct capital away from equities towards property. With such an under performance of equities it would surprising if any pis invested their pension pots in equities rather than property. And if the housing bubble became under threat which asset classes would be taxed to prop up property? All good questions as economics appears no longer the directional issue but second guessing policy makers latest moves, is.
As property assets have performed so well increasingly government tax revenues have become dependent on property as their major source of income. This has become a co dependent upward cycle with both consumer and government increasingly dependent on property rises as their income source. Most UK families that hold property return their net their salary again from their property price rises. Its the perfect multi decade bubble.
Rich
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Ftse100 looks very sick doesn't she in terms of the multi decade charts. Back to nearly 1997 levels. Nearly a lost couple of decades. And yet house prices are a long way from the 1997 levels.
Take a look through the list of ftse100 components.
From Tescos to GSK to Shell to BHP to RR to HSBC or LLoyds to L&G to or who ever you choose. All the old established names are being crushed. The ftse100 would be a lot lower if new names weren't in the mix. But where is the strength? What issues have done well. We must consider that UK wealth is considerably higher. Consumers are flush with capital as their main assets have outstripped all other investments. Its clear that travel and leisure and related cos have done well. Higher end alcohol and flight companies and various consumer brands have done nicely. But staple consumer stocks have not like tescos etc. Its a reorientation of the global economy towards consumption with its demand perpetuated by global ms increases being funneled into house prices in the main.
Austrians would explain this as the road to serfdom confirmation. That you can shift wealth around by printing money but you cannot create additional wealth. In addition big government strangles business and in the end although nos for growth and inflation can be manipulated the penny eventually drops that really things are moving in reverse even if nominally they appear to be increasing.
Whats surprises me is even with the statistical adjustments and endless qes the nominal ms expansion is being lost. It seems to me the neo keynesians need a huge additional stimulus program if this game is to sustain. Far from higher rates lower and more qe seems almost inevitable. Much of this has to flow from the US to right the global economy again it seems.
rich
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Same old same old..
UK mono line booming.. 58.5 services pmi.. highest reading in the world! I kid you not. Its a long way down from these dizzy heights folks.
http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event.aspx?id=0fbc81b5-a029-4c0e-a5c7-9baf1fc47cd2
Go Carney!
Rich
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I can recall trading around prior election events as a younger chap. Your instincts as to the effect on markets were usual counter intuitive. Ie a conservative win usually did not lead to a short term rise in the market whereas a labour win usually did. I always imaged it would be the reverse.
Simply put Labour governments operate a lose monetary policy generally. They are good for asset prices in the near term as they are fiscally lose. Conservatives are traditionally more tight with fiscal policy. Of course we must also accept that short term and longer term asset performance inverse post the mid term of most labour governments as the consequences of their policies become apparent.
Specifically for this election the markets are encouraged to see a labour victory as it removes the brexit issue from the EU. Markets hate uncertainty, the exit issue is a large one so off the agenda its a short term positive for sterling.
Congrats to Milliband and his team for operating a very efficient political campaign thus far. Tax loop holes like Spread betting, non doms and tax avoidance by millionaire land lords will be closed no doubt. The effect on London cannot be underestimated, imo.
Rich
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If yyou hold assets in the uk these are very meaningful developments on the political and fiscal regime. The Labour party on several polls getting ahead of the conservative party. On some as many as now 6% points ahead.
Here a summary of the polices. Inc rent controls, scap non dom, higher min wages, water and electricity price caps, manion taxes, free childcare and a closing of tax loop holes and new heavy fines for tax errors of double the amount due.
I make no personal comment on this other than collectively they will create a very different business and fiscal environment for the uk. There will be winners and losers as this is a new direction indeed.
Just read through the key points..
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/13/labour-election-manifesto-key-points
On many fronts for a modern progressive economy with heavy government intervention its a reasonable set of policies.
The problem is the uk's economy is not a mixed economy as such. Its a current acc deficit economy funded by financial inflows from the world and empire as the uk runs a very light fiscal regime on these inflows. The uk runs a two tier system effectively. One for its foreign inflows and one for its uk citizens. To try and attempt to create a set of social welfare policies according to the uk's apparent wealth is dangerous in the extreme. You may well find that the inflow become outflows very quickly. The Uk without the inflows and worse with outflows would "fall over" very quickly indeed.
Lets watch this. The tide of history could be on the turn for the uk. IMO.
Luck to all
Rich
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UK Budget. No change off any substance. To be fair to Osborne at least he didn't try a pre election sweetener. On the other hand he didn't use the opportunity to push for growth either from rhetoric or fiscal policy.
Overall disappointing and a missed opportunity, in my view. On the other hand he didn't didn't score any own goals.
Specifics. first 1000 pounds tax free saved. Nonsense. Interest rates are 1.5% on a 1yr bond ie on 1000 pounds saved that 15 pounds interest p.a. The tax is 3 pounds on this. The costs of administering this "benefit" will be far more than the benefit received. Imagine calculating this tax benefit for all the various groups involved inc the banks that will have to update their software to cope with this change.
If they are a basic rate taxpayer and have a total income up to £42,700 a year, they will be eligible for the £1,000 tax-free savings allowance. (From April 2015)
As an ex FS IT & Biz process designer - unbelievably complex to implement. Dear god the cost of this is beyond belief.
Also the right to buy isa.
Every £200 people save towards their first home, the government will put in an extra £50, up to a maximum bonus of £3000. The government has already helped people to buy a home with Help to Buy, which allows people to purchase a home with just a 5% deposit.
The government is now going further. To help first time buyers save for a deposit, it is introducing a Help to Buy ISA. People will be able to open an ISA, save up to £200 a month towards their first home, and the government will boost it by 25%. That’s a £50 bonus for every £200 people save, up to £3000.So according to my maths.. Maximum monthly saving is 200 pounds ie 2400 p.a. The government will provide 600 pounds. Given the nos are so small vs house prices. Recall the average UK wide house price is 282,000 pounds. The average median uk wage is 26,000 pounds. Ie 11 times salary. In the se of england the average price is 370,000 pounds whereas average se salary is around 30,000 pounds p.a. Ie multiple of 12.5 times salary.
Annual prices have risen by 8% in the last 12 months. Ie in the se by nearly 30,000 pounds. My point mathematically is that a 600 pound give away is noise. Giving cash and loan guarantees is also a very strange set of policy tools for a conservative government.
There is a lack of savings in the uk system yet interest rates are zero. A reestablishment of the market price for savings and capital would quickly right the property market in terms of affordability but alas this is not in the interests of the political or banking classes.
Overall, neutral therefore at best. Seemed out of ideas. And the forward estimates may come back to bite as they widely optimistic given housing and new mortgages and business activity and sterling strength and world weakness. Very optimistic forward nos.
Finally, there is an unwritten rule for all governments about to pass a law. Always make sure new laws or fiscal taxes are very simple to understand and administer. If you don't follow this rule you quickly find any benefit from the measure is quickly swallowed up by its management and regulation.
Rich
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There is a problem Houston with the UK. A lot of data today and not much of it good.
The problem is that although strong credit growth in the economy its not quite enough to stem the outflows of capital. M4 is contracting even as credit booms. This is not good. Mortgage approvals weak but the value per approval is strong. Consumer credit strong and this feeding UK pmi being strong in spite of the strong pound. Ie there appears a consumer demand in the uk fed by credit. The balance of trade is very poor so the strong pmi is not down to export growth. The disastrous current acc infers international inflows to support the deficits as the capital account is positive. Inflows yes (good) but to fund debt based consumption, bad! Its not a good trend that the UK is on here. The issue, as always is the timing.
The UK pubic sector deficit will likely be -5.5% of GDP for 2015/16. That's the highest in the developed western world in front of Spain at 4.4%, Portugal, Greece etc.
Fortunately the BOE owns 25% of the UK's public debt and the interest on this element of the debt is paid directly back to the chancellor. In effect this reduces the UK's debt load. Public debt will be around 1.5trn for 2015 and the UK economy is approx 1.65tn pounds. This gives the uk some headroom to accumulate more public debt. A trick which the labour party has doubtless not missed. Ie the door is wide open to kick off large public infrastructure spending funded care of monetizing the uk's debt. This would have the added benefit of "rebalancing the economy" towards exports as the pound would be devalued. The move is simply too tempting it seems.
If debt is not important then Osborne looks to have done a great job. Conversely if debt and deficits are an issue then the uk continues on a set of policies pursed since Tony Blair took office. Really nothing has altered in terms of strategy and direction. The pace of debt accumulation and spending has reduced but the direction hasn't altered.
I cant see how else you can read the uk economy. And i say this as someone who has profited and continues to profit greatly from these policies. Carry on therefore by all means but one day all the wheels will fall off this great 40 yr uk asset price and debt accumulation trend. I must say it has been a good one.
If only those pesky Germans would add consumer debt to their system. That would produce a good multi decade run indeed.
Rich
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Always liked king. What i like about the man was that he was honest and played a "straight bat" in terms of being very clear with us as to the effects on the rich and poor and middle alike.
He was always a reluctant money printer. A team player of course but always with an honest heart and always at pains to point out the mal effects of his policies as well as benefits.
The most we can expect from political type leaders (inc king) is that they are honest in their dealings i think.Its impossible to ask him to lead. His whole career was about achieving consensus. Given this, he did the best he could.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/01/20/uk-britain-boe-king-idUKKBN0KS23G20150120
Rich
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Its a shocking data point to me that the Uk government share of the uk economy is now greater than many european states including spain. The UK government's share of the uk economy is approaching 50%. 47% or so. Spain 44.5%.
There is no way, during peaceful times that half of a free market economy can be government. And this number excludes the partially owned banks and the off balance sheet pfi services and the government guaranteed consumer loan spending (education etc) which used to be included in the governments spending nos. And be aware social security spending is about to rise due to the demographics and baby boomers.
You can critic this in many ways but relying on perpetual house price growth ahead of wages will not create wealth in the long run. In the long run it will in fact destroy wealth and your economy as you concentrate more and more on the mirage of housing and balance sheet consumption paper wealth.
Like all mirages it will evaporate very quickly on a crisis. 2015 is election year. The pound is in play as the initial target. As i said a month or so ago i moved out of sterling in preparation for these coming elections. Its likely to be get very messy.
Rich
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As we all know tax receipts are not rising and this is the problem.
A good question very few are asking is why are tax receipts not rising given unemployment has halved? Its really very simple. The recovery in jobs has created alot of very low paid burger flipping service jobs. These workers pay barely any income tax and few have assets. Therefore tax receipts don't increase even as employment rises.
And so the central planners, having created vast paper wealth for the few, are moving to implement a system of taxation based on your paper profits and wealth.
Recall we have never moved down this paper wealth tax system in the uk but soon they are moving to this system. A paper wealth tax appears the way forward for the uk and doubtless us. It used to be the case that you would only be taxed when a gain is realized as a company or as a citizen. It was understood that paper profits come and go. A paper profit is not the same as a realized gain and the two cannot be taxed equally therefore. But consider things have moved on. We are in a world of paper only. Paper and digital is being presented as the same as physical (in fact digitial is better than the old relic of physical) so the tax system is evolving to mirror this shift. In stead of paying tax on your realized gain you are to pay on your theoretical gain. A mansion tax etc is such a tax. It is a wealth tax on your paper worth not your realized worth. In this system it is understood the paper value cannot go down. The banks would collapse and tax revenues would collapse so nominally house prices (and increasingly stock prices) can never go down again as they become totally systemic. If they fall everything collapses and equity release is another part of this secular trend.
Its the brave new world.
Rich
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UK inflation 1.2%. UK average pay growth 1.3%.
There is a problem here and FX markets reflecting this today with sterling falling to one year lows (cable). With a falling oil price, it seems likely that inflation will continue to fall. So UK average pay growth is more benign than the headlines suggests.
http://marketbusinessnews.com/uk-pay-growth-beats-inflation-first-time-five-years/38011
Yesterday, Mark Carney all but ruled out a rate rise (which previously was coming when unemployment fell to 7% - it is now 6%) until some time next year.
With soaring house prices, the suggestion that there is any benefit accruing to the non asset holder is IMHO, simply obtuse. Most are excluded from the mortgage and credit markets and can only look on as they continue to rise.
JMK
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So following on from the WMDs that didn't exist "our Tone" opines that curbing immigration would be a disaster.
For whom?
I think there is a serious case for considering Sectioning the man under Mental Health Act.
JMK
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