The Hunt Brothers Remembered & Regulatory Lessons
by on Aug 31, 2011 •This report below details some of the history surrounding the Hunt Brothers attempted cornering of the silver market.. Whats very interesting here are the rapid regulatory changes that were applied in order to ‘save’ the comex and Cbot exchanges. Its hard to imagine what such changes could do to today’s silver markets. Possibly a black...
Credit Suisse – Secular Commodity Bull Intact but Volatile..
by on Aug 29, 2011 •According to Credit Suisse commodity markets can move higher under their own weight due to the supply demand imbalances that exist in the world. They go so far as to say, commodities will, over time, remain uncorrelated with equity and other asset markets, to the upside.. (Indeed as they have been for the last decade...
All Eyes to Dc Ben ‘Will he or won’t he’
by on Aug 26, 2011 •Once again its fed monetary policy that is the main driver in this market. We have a likely big day before us in either direction depending on Ben’s actions. Jobs and asset prices will be on Ben’s mind. He wants inflation as well as a lower USD so in spite of the worries, imo, it...
Silver Momentum Crushed (in the nick of time) Paper vs Physical & technical implications..
by on Aug 25, 2011 •I said the bullish move in silver would need to be significantly crushed in order to prevent an attempt on 50 and more.. The ‘crush’ came with an enormous paper tidal wave of selling starting on Tuesday and sustaining into today, thus far.. She has fallen from 44.3 to 38.8 or 5.5 points 13% in...
M2 Surges.. Good news for makers of wheelbarrows..
by on Aug 23, 2011 •http://www.zerohedge.com/news/m2-surge-moderates-only-increases-422-billion-past-week The ratio of cash and near cash to new money off the printing press is all important to dc ben. With $9.5 trn as m2 this invites qe3. So, good luck to those deposit accounts. This wall of cash will mean huge forward volatility. Its worth noting that order books can be massively overrun...
Free Markets – to a lesser (& lesser) Extent..
by on Aug 23, 2011 •Hey guys, everything moving ahead perfectly isn’t it.. no one should be too surprised by any of the price action we can see before us, imo.. I’ll do a technical and macro comment on another post but firstly price controls/free markets.. I’m not sure who else is trading the softs here but anyone close to...
Silver Taking Off.. A ‘Super Parabolic’ move coming..
by on Aug 19, 2011 •The technical picture for silver has become ultra bullish. The failure for price to step back into the ‘normal channel’ trend lines post the parabolic rise is expectionally rare and therefore super bullish for silver. The base has formed over the last 4 months or so. She is pushing on once again. The rise today...
Monetary Lose Policies (ie money printing environments) produce extreme ‘YOY’ Volatility e.g. Mexico
by on Aug 19, 2011 •A key message for participants of equity markets is to be very careful in applying old paradigms of technical trading definitions of bull and bear markets to the brave new world we are entering. Technically trade equity markets in monetary lose periods is a very different game and must take into account the increasing issuance...
Morgan Stanley “Dangerously Close to Recession”
by on Aug 18, 2011 •MS, on the headline, seems to be shifting stance a little towards recessionary risks which would be U turn on their views expressed 10 days or so ago (report published here look for ‘MS rebuff to UBS’). But on closer reader MS have not changed their view that the US will not slip back into...
Markets – Summer Days..
by on Aug 17, 2011 •We are mid august with most of the pros back on holiday following the huge volatility of a few weeks ago subsiding for now. Asia markets calm over night and barely moving. US indexes seeing more volatility yesterday but retracing the 160 ticks lows (dow) and ending the session flat. Out of hours on the...
Morgan Stanley – Petrochemicals outlook & recommendations.. BASF (& refinery capacity projections)
by on Aug 16, 2011 •Morgan-Stanley – petrochemincals Morgan’s siting the usual suspects of India and China providing a game change to the petro chemicals industry. And here a view of the oil refineries currently under construction across Asia. These refineries will add 70mbpd for 2011 or an addition 1.5mbpd refinery capacity. By 2016 Asia will have added an additional...