Central Banks Swaps Lines Attempt to Re-set Pro Risk Rally
by on Nov 30, 2011 •I dont have time now to comment fully now but the latest central bank action represents massive intervension in the fx markets. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-29/stock-futures-in-u-s-decline-after-bank-ratings-cut-by-standard-poor-s.html In summary its clear signal to market participants that no cash is safe. That central banks will be willing to accept overseas soverign debt junk (ie euro debt) as acceptable collateral for...
Weekly Technical Comments – Xmas Rally in Place (Subject to 1158 sp500 holding)..
by on Nov 29, 2011 •Here attached the UBS pair’s weekly technical comments.. They are maintaining their bullish stance re equities and pro risk assets generally. They don’t mention the eurusd specifically but state they are bearish on the dx and so we have to assume they are bullish on the euro as the dx is mainly the eurusd pair....
Chart Blitz
by on Nov 25, 2011 •So ends another week in the capital markets. Last week the technicals confirmed the macro fundamentals so that this weeks move was pretty inevitable. Everything fell into place in last week inc the inverse correlation of equity markets to the dx weakening. Although the macro picture seems to be worsening every day that passes (as...
Summary Its a Bacon Slicer – ‘We Are All Doomed But Some Less Than Others’
by on Nov 24, 2011 •Where to start.. Firstly, apologies for not posting sooner. I will post some technical charts up after this brief comment. France, Germany and Italy made a joint statement out of Frankfurt today that the ECB will remain independent and that there would be no undue pressure from sovereign states to enforce the ECB to monetize...
Market Chart Blitz
by on Nov 18, 2011 •Given where we are, lets rush through some charts.. Here the super important Eurusd.. this pair is the major construct for the DX (dollar basket) and seems to define the entire direction of the market (most of the time). The risk on off correlation to eurusd is weakening a little but is still alive for...
Euro Farse – Update..
by on Nov 17, 2011 •As previously noted here, the ‘final solution’ re Europe’s debt deleveraging must come from either the ECB and or IMF. It should come as no surprise then that Euro officials are working along side the IMF to work around the ECB non monetization of debt legal constraints. Last night the IMF Head of European matters...
Commodities / Economics / Emerging Markets / Fixed Income / Fundamental Indicators / FX / Indexes / PMs
Monetary History – The Day After the 1976 Peso Devaluation…
by on Nov 16, 2011 •A personal story extracted from swissmetalassets.com link provided below. In 1976 Mexico devalued her peso vs the US$ by 50% “Everyone in the country was in shock. People’s net worth had devalued more than 53% overnight. The value in savings accounts dropped in half and neither merchants nor consumers knew how to react because they...
Why A Tax Haven Now?
by on Nov 15, 2011 •From the 1970s until 2008, consumer debt has increased, almost unabated, year on year across the developed world. The UK, as just one developed world example, has seen consumer debt increase from 43% of GDP in 1973 to over a 100% of GDP in 2012. In the UK’s case, much of this consumer debt was...
Weekly Technical View..
by on Nov 15, 2011 •The UBS team continue to expect a late Nov high beta rally. They site the 1.348 eurusd level as important too hold to sustain the risk on rally and sp500 1226. Lets see.. Weekly15-11 For my mind market watch here providing a rare ‘perfect’ summary of where we are.. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bulls-need-to-punch-through-resistance-2011-11-14?link=mw_home_kiosk Rich p.s. With the pre...
Stocks to Outperform Cash by, at least, 460%. Dow Target 61846
by on Nov 14, 2011 •We cannot know how effective the debt monetization will be and therefore the degree of inflation and financial repression that will be called for. We can be 99% certain that the money printers will do all they can to implement the financial repression model as far as the eye can see in an attempt to...
The Sovereign Debt Default Process.. Dc.Marc Faber
by on Nov 11, 2011 •As discussed previously, we are getting ever closer to massive debt monetization by central banks and or the IMF due to the ever worsening fiscal position of ‘developed world’ sovereign entities. It seems to me a reminder for us all on the history and theory from specialists in the area would be useful here and...
David Einhorn’s Q3 Letter to Shareholders
by on Nov 10, 2011 •Apologies a few days late with this one but here below the brilliant Daid Einhorn’s Q3 letter to shareholders. Ill run through his latest entries in the next few days and update this post. He has made some exceptionally good calls in the last few months inc Vod, Green Mountain etc. I see he has...