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2014 Outlooks – “MM” Technical Analysis. ML,CS,BS,Citi,SB,HS,JL,WF
by on Dec 31, 2013 •Last post for 2013. What a wonderful year it has been for trend followers.Hedge funds have generally had a dismal year. One quote from a hedge fund manager summed up the situation nicely. “All you had to do this year was go long a major US index and go focus on your golf swing”. Yes...
JP Commodities 2014 Outlook – “Tapering is Bullish, not Bearish, for Commodity Markets”
by on Dec 31, 2013 •2013 has been a dismal year for commodity bugs and especially the gold bugs. But cyclically wise commodities usually rise toward the end of a recovery period in asset prices. They are the laggards to the move so commodity bugs it could be time to wake up to these themes again. Rising interest rates have...
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“The New Great Game” Thunder Road Dec2013
by on Dec 30, 2013 •I very pleased to bring you the latest, hugely insightful, multi market macro report, namely, the Thunder Road Report. During this festive holiday period its a perfect time for some reflection on the macro and how this feed into our macro and micro allocations for the coming year. A very timely release therefore. Thunder Road’s...
Macro Outlook “The Pain in Spain” – IMF, ML, CapSyn – Dec13
by on Dec 29, 2013 •Spain continues her economic struggle with another negative year for growth in 2013. The clear problem for Spain continues to be a lack of credit for the private sector, households and corporates alike. Year on year, since the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis loans to the private sector have fallen sharply. The Spanish...
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2014 Outlooks – CS, SC, ML..
by on Dec 29, 2013 •Macro wise, very high correlation in allocations and perspectives across the majors which represents a high risk to asset markets. If we do hit unexpected problems, volatility could spike up in 2014 due to this herding phenomena, be warned. There is little or no downside risks priced into this market on a macro level. CS-GlobalEquity-2014...
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“Deleveraging? CapSyn Outlook & “MM” Weekly Reports – 21st Dec13
by on Dec 29, 2013 •Here below some final 2013 weekly reports from the majors sticking to the themes we have seen before. Inevitably they are forward looking into 2014. Its clear on a macro market level (ie on major themes) the institutional teams are uniformly sticking to the over weight equities and under weight bonds but long junk. Under...
Xmas Weekly Technical Update – “Santa’s Rally Sustains” 24th Dec13
by on Dec 24, 2013 •A very brief Christmas technical update as the US markets soar to new all time record highs capping a wonderful year for speculators and investors alike. 2013 has conformed perfectly to second half of December strong positive seasonal period. Some call it ‘window dressing’ and some call it Santa’s Rally. For whatever reason we have...
Commodity Outlook – ML,Commerz, 19Dec13
by on Dec 19, 2013 •Here a few of the latest commodity related reports. ML-commodities-dec13 commerz-commoditytech-17-12-13 BullionWeeklyTechnicals17122013(1) Comments to follow. Cheers Rich
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JP “MM” Mnthly Reports – & MS 2014 Outlook Dec13
by on Dec 19, 2013 •Here some very recent monthly wealth allocation type reports. JP-MMstrat-mnthly-dec13 jp-longtermstrat-17dec13 JP-allocations-mnthly-dec13 And here the ms “mm” 2014 forecast doc. ms-fc2014 All the best Rich
FX Technical & Fundamental Analysis – Citi,JP,HSBC,DanskeB,Scotia,CommerzB-15Dec13
by on Dec 19, 2013 • commerz-fxtech-10-12-13 JP-eurgbptrade-13-12-13 Scotiab-fxwkly-13-12-13 Danske-techtrades-11-12-13 danske-FX_Forecast_Update_December_161213 hsbc-fx-Monthlydec13 jp-fxtech-dec19-12 Citi-wealth-fxwkly-09-12-13
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Economic & Fixed Income Analysis Inc Country Focus – ML,Danske,BNP,CS,WF,JP – Dec13
by on Dec 19, 2013 •At present i post up these numerous economic and country focused reports without any commentary. The holiday seasons is a time for reflection and analysis of this data so lets come back and comment more meaningfully on some of the major macro themes behind and in front of us over the holiday period. Here some...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Mid Dec Buying Setup” 17th Dec13
by on Dec 17, 2013 •Its that time of the week for the usual technical update across the major asset markets. The Swiss team stick to their bullish theme of forecasting a likely near term bottom for the US indexes and a buying opportunity therefore. They also stick to their medium term view that a deeper Q1 2014 7 to...