Chart Blitz – (A Purely Price Analysis)..

Here we see the Dow cash which on Friday met her prior high set April 2011..

Its not a breakout yet on the dow cash but its very close now.. The wider S&P500 isn’t performing as well as the DOW for obvious reasons.. ie that large multinational cos are greatly prefered at present due to the dollar debasement issue as well their ability to access the capital debt markets more easily than the smaller domestic cos. Here the SP500

But of all three the Nas100 continues to outperform. She is on fire, again, for obvious reasons. Nasdaq companies are knowledge based cos that can compete on a level playing field with their international rivals. Tech cos are seeing some large valuations again. Here the Nas100, in breakout..

IBM, a tech dow component, perhaps the best of both worlds, like Apple in breakout.. And a breakout leg on a strong bull trend.

Here a laggard but of great interest BIDU. Ive been following BIDU for a while. Chinese stocks have done well recently but have struggled for the last few years. Given the valuations for Facebook, Google, etc, Bidu is of great interest. The chart is positive showing a breakout. The overall tech market is overbought and due a pull back so its a difficult moment to enter but the history is good for such later entries in bullish sectors. BIDU is an add even here.

Before leaving equities its worth looking at the banking index.

She has smashed her interim down trend and looks promising to add some more weight. A move up to 56 to 58 looks probable over the next few months. Whether the cyclical low is in place we cannot be certain but the chart is promising near and medium term. This is very important for the equity indexes, lending and the wider economy.

Dollar Index wise, the dollar’s recent strength has been challenged over the last few weeks. She is right at the price support. Its a tricky one this. Price wise the chart is not a strong chart. She has an entry long here but i would keep the stops close as the other charts dont support much of dollar bounce at present. Here next the major component, the eurusd.

Not alot to say on this one other than the euro has plenty of room to bounce around here and chop some participants up in the process. Tthe on/off risk correlation that drove much of the 2009 to 2011 market is less certain than it once was. Un-correlated chop is very probable therefore until the major trend resumes which is further eurusd weakness. For those that like short term trading, the euro was oversold but friday’s action is indicative of a bounce and rejoin of the very recent uptrend having consolidated for the last week or so. The probability is to the north, near term but a chop is possible so usual stops and profit ratio methodologies apply that im sure those that trade on the short term trends understand all too well.

A wizz through some other currencies with little expanation other than the technical charts.. Here first up, the new on/off risk indicator.. the AUDUSD..

And here vs the JPY

Over the last 9 months i’ve read so many negative commodity currency stories that ive lost count.. the price action on the AUD is very supportive vs most the major world currencies. The yield is very strong. It is very expensive to short the AUD at present. Having scored a recent chart pattern vs the JPY the aud is continuing to look strong with the recent over bought situation having corrected this week and now looking promising for another leg on.

In spite of the euros recent strength vs the USD, vs other world currencies the euro continues to perform poorly as does the USD. Eurgbp:

Eursek:

Wonderful pattern on the Usdcad a few weeks ago, as commented, and on she marches.. So many went against this pattern believing it was false. As so many went against it promises much and could run and run in spite of the recent negative jobs data out of Canada. Canada is still unique in being the only g7 country not to implemented a QE program, note. Faber is right, imo, that Canada has an over heated property market and this concerns me. Canada needs higher rates, in spite of the flat jobs data. There are other ways around this ie legislating for higher deposits etc. All this aside, on the price evidence, the cad remains a buy on shallow pull backs due to her relative attractiveness vs the other g7 currencies.

And swiftly on to the commodity indexes and components themselves.. The CRB has recovered a little composure but its very early days here.. Dont feel you have missed anything. Price can move a long way from here.

Oil, one of the major components is still stuck in her narrow range from 95 to 103 or so and continues to bounce around in this range.. It looks a significant consolidation area from which she could powerfully spring northwards and over come that resistance that held in 2011 at 114 or so.

Gold displays a wonderful technical chart and continues to perform as the strongest of assets purely from a price analysis.

And silver..One of the most, i suggest the most, exciting assets in the market. The large bearish pattern surprisingly overcome. Silver’s major trend is a bull trend. A breakdown of the bearish pattern inside a large bull pattern is technically hugely significant. Silver is an add on shallow pull backs.

Miners wise we are back in the range again.. patience patience.

We are close to some technical levels, especially on the HUI juniors which risen rapidly of late. The majors are having trouble maintaining production. Consolidation is occuring inc paas and many others. Patience but as yet no broken technical levels inspite of gold and silver’s technical breakouts of bearish patterns. The future is still uncertain for the miners from a price perspective. From an investment perspective divergence of price from the fundamental picture can offer the greatest rewards.. Patience.

Agriculture is moving again with Wheat in breakout

I hold some corn futures again. Im bullish on corn.. Agri has been very volatile but for those that can handle the volatility the price action is supportive in the near term and longer term as higher lows are in place and the entire agri sector is moving. Albeit in a very volatile manner.

As the world brings ever more acers on stream they all need much cultivation and TNH and others continue to thrive under these conditions.. ive held for the last few years and i added on the recent pull back to 150. Few price charts are more bullish, for good fundamental reasons.