We are continuing to see a softening of the data rather than falling off a cliff data coming through. Well’s reviews the various reports, provides a snap shot international perspective and a mini tribute to Steve Jobs.
In my mind we have the ‘natural’ cycle that demands governments and consumers pay down debt and repair their balance sheets. This ‘natural’ cycle is being thwarted by monetary actions which have lowered yields to negative levels in order to boost consumption. Consumers are discouraged from saving in a developed world where savings rates are still very low and personal balance sheets weak. In addition we have direct quantitative actions by central banks to nominally increase the money supply and so to provide additional incentives not to stay in cash. These two (and many other) initiatives are suspending and will eventually, no doubt, over power the ‘natural’ cycle, as has so often occurred in the post war environment.
Onwards we march. Rich
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