Apologies for the delay in posting up.. Ive been traveling between beach, mountain & city.
Below the UBS technical view. Its a complex report this and contains many gems. The summary is sp500 above 1074 or so (on a closing basis) signifies the low is in for this wave of the cyclical bear. They suggest more is to come but this will occur in mid 2012 (but who can read markets 9 months in advance i ask!). Therefore, we have a low pre the end of year rally. They suggest not chasing the bull move but buying dips. Target sp500 1270/80 by mid March 2012. They like Asia and sectors wise miners and financials. Defensive stocks will under perform there more pro risk rivals but given the over pessimistic views re earnings declines and a bull move within a cyclical bear the defensive sectors will provide a decent income and relative stability vs the wild swings within the cyclical bear.
For what its worth my own comment would be that we cannot know precisely when the inevitable flite from cash/bonds occurs. We clearly have technical damage from this last severe sell off but this technical picture can be over turned with sufficient monetary ‘juice’ very quickly. I continue to have a high yielding mixed portfolio of stocks and pms. I believe cash and bonds are still the least attractive of asset classes to own in spite of UBS and others views on the cyclical bear lasting until mid 2012 and possibly beyond. I wouldn’t be too concerned if you are paid handsomely whilst you wait.
On UBS technicals.. Their report remains very impressive so i don’t feel the need to reinvent wheels given under these circumstances. There are plenty of other things to do re equity research, instruments and asset management issues. And finally not forgetting life!
All the best Rich
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