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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Overshooting, Gold Basing” 20th Dec17 V2
by on Dec 20, 2017 •Hi guys, a good week has passed with what looks and feels like the usual Santa rally in motion. US equities have set more record highs and although the 52 week highs are divergent from the prior wave they still have achieved near +2 STD from the mean levels of 52 wk highs which is...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Watch SP500 Support 2625” 15th Dec17
by on Dec 15, 2017 •Holiday season is upon us and the seasonal strength shines through. After the strong momentum and renewed breadth we have seen on US equities there were clear signs of higher highs yet to come and sure enough we have seen that continuation set up. World equities have bounced but yet to have a clear signal...
Weekly Technical Analysis – “Too Early to Call SP500 Top” 8th Dec17
by on Dec 8, 2017 •Another busy week of price action with the continued themes of US equity strength vs rest of world equity weakness alongside commodity weakness. As expected after last week’s price action the guys have changed their call as regards to the probability of a very near term top on some US lead cyclical themes. There is...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Rising Selectivity in Global Equities” 30th Nov17 V2
by on Nov 30, 2017 •Rising selectivity in global equities is correct but nonetheless with ever higher highs in major US indexes. And whats more, in the last few sessions, we have significant price moves as lead cyclical indexes of transports and banking have price confirmed the fresh price breakouts. We have to acknowledge there is now plenty of confirming...
Weekly Technical Analysis – “$ Recovery Over/Flattening Yield Curve” 23rd Nov17
by on Nov 23, 2017 •Hey guys, Another week rolls by with US equities maintaining their perpetual drift up style, ever narrowing bull market. Once again fresh price highs with very weak breadth again and with cyclical lead indexes providing non confirmation also. This appears to conform to all the classic text book end wave 5 scenarios with all risk...
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Weekly Technical Analysis “Short Dax, Nik225” 15th Nov17
by on Nov 15, 2017 •We appear to have a market again here with prices rising and falling in a normal manner as opposed to the prior drift ever upward of recent months. Whilst the main US equity markets continue to see low volatility moves, price continues to be close to all time record highs, volatility is increasing and price...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “4 Month Cycle Top in Sight & Europe in Wave 5” 2nd Nov17
by on Nov 2, 2017 •Another week rolls by and its been the theme of continued world equity mkts strength. Rising US$ rates expectations and a small jump in inflation expectations. Asia continues to out perform and the Eurostoxx50 hits her 2014 resistance level and FEZ (eurostoxx50US$) scores another breakout higher high of this trend. Ill leave the equity detail...
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Weekly Technical Analysis V2 – “Divergences in Out performers, Watch Transports” 26th Oct17
by on Oct 26, 2017 •Another week rolls by with sp500 price at almost the identical level she closed at the week before. Volatility has risen a little however with a reversal price bar but no follow through as yet. Lead cyclicals like transports, soxx, tech and finance either not achieving much change or slightly down. World indexes are also...
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Weekly Technical Analysis V2 – “Sp500 Losing Momentum & Vulnerable” 19th Oct17
by on Oct 19, 2017 •The drift on up has continued across global equity markets with a consecutive 13 day straight run of higher highs for the Nikkei. The first time this has occurred for nearly 20 years since 1998. Whoever thinks you cant make nominal prices rise via monetary means was clearly on the wrong side of that trade....
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “US Mkt Overbought, Bullish Reversal Gold” 12th Oct17
by on Oct 12, 2017 •Its been a good week for the reflation trade with Tips achieving a good bounce and the metals once again achieving a high momentum scores. Copper leading the charge of the metals and platinum lagging. The recent Dollar weakness supportive of course. US equities have seen a sustained bid with many cyclical sectors/indexes overbought on...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Tactically, Don’t Chase the SP500” 5th Nov17
by on Oct 5, 2017 •With the Sp500 making new record highs and being joined by most of her sub indexes/sectors (Russ2000, transports, soxx, nas100, etc, Sector wise check US housing which is back on fire to the upside). We can see this increasingly selective wave five extension has not paused, September or no September and in spite of the...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Tactical Top SP500” 26th Sept17
by on Sep 26, 2017 •Another weeks rolls by and we certainly have got the movement in FX and commodity markets that we anticipated. The only piece of the jigsaw that is still holding back from competing the anticipated price path are US equities with their continued surprising price resilience in spite of the ever weakening technical picture. Unfortunately i’ll...