BarCap-NeartermTechFX-24-10-13
by on Oct 24, 2013 •BarCap near term analysis. Taking US$ continuation vs the Cad as one example and using the WTI weakness to justify its entry. If they are wrong on WTI they will be very wrong on the usdcad which implies a reversal and ie direction and trend on the pair. I’d be curious to ask them how...
A Historic Reminder – Wehrmacht Inflation
by on Oct 24, 2013 •The post 2008 credit crisis has provided a golden 5 year period for asset holders. Fiscal deficits and central banks liquidity injections have expanded money supply without enabling inflation as money velocity has collapsed and the banking sector have retained excess reserves on their balance sheets. Many stocks have risen 300 to 500% in the...
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HSBC-Weekly – FX-Strat – 22nd Oct13
by on Oct 23, 2013 •No focus on price by the team here. A mix of other tech indicators and fundamental comments which is actually quite refreshing and useful working alongside the price tech work of the other teams. The eurusd strength is a head wind the euro area cannot with stand. The team using it as a signal that...
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CommerzB – Commodity FX Weekly Technical Analysis – 23Oct13
by on Oct 23, 2013 •The usual weekly technical report from CommerzB re the commodity fx pairs. The tech charts show the significance of this area for the usdcad. If the USD can get a bid she would invalidate the fairly bullish medium term chart for the cad. A breakdown for the US$ through the 200 dma would likely be...
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SChartered – FX Weekly Technical Analysis – 21-Oct13
by on Oct 23, 2013 •The usual weekly technical report from SC. They have turned bullish the eurusd pair up to 1.40 mirroring the jpm shift. Its plain to see that if we could get above the 1.40 level in the coming weeks it would be a game changer for the Dollar basket with all the asset implications this would...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Spike in Market Breadth is Bullish, New Key SP500 Support 1729!”
by on Oct 22, 2013 •A great report. The market breadth issue is meaningful and as the guys only comment on the technical I’d just make the point that this is fully explained by the shift back down in US fixed income rates in the last 4 weeks. The ten year today has slipped back down to 2.5% and this...
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CS-Commodities 22nd Oct 13 & BarCap – China Commodities Oct 21st 13
by on Oct 22, 2013 •This is what is so interesting at this point in proceedings. Many large participants are forecasting a continuation of the cyclical commodity bear and effectively the ending of the commodity super cycle. Fundamental demand and supply wise they could be correct but demand and supply do not drive price moves of commodity instruments any more....
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Hedge Fund Watch – Greenlight “Letter to Shareholders” Oct15 & Hinde Capital “Bullion Miners Focus” 16th Oct 13
by on Oct 22, 2013 •Here a couple of reports from the two widely respected, though very different, hedge funds. Greenlight Capital’s performance record, over the last decade or so, puts her in the upper quartile of the upper quartile. David Einhorn its ceo updates on views, performance and allocations. Greenlight-Q3-2013 Hinde Capital are the specialist bullion focused hedge fund....
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CS-Weekly Wealth Management – 18th Oct13
by on Oct 20, 2013 •Interesting comment and views from CS wealth management. Their tech team picking up something noted and allocated against a week or so on the forum pages ie the “Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index with strong technical momentum” contrary to UBS expectation. Long high yield junk, which was another theme from the forum allocations a week...
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CapSyn-Equity Indexes Technical Analysis – 20th Oct 2013
by on Oct 20, 2013 •Prestonni-TechnicalAnalysis-20Oct13 All the best Rich
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SC Weekly Macro Strategy, Levels & Allocations – 18th Oct 13
by on Oct 18, 2013 •Just off the wires this morning SC’s latest weekly report on global markets inc key levels and their allocation recommendations. SC also taking a bow at their recent performance and allocations. They appear to be getting a bit more bullish, at least euro area wise and staying under weight fixed income. SC-WklyMacroStrat-18-oct13 US$ confusion reigns,...
CommerzB-CommodityFX 16th Oct13
by on Oct 18, 2013 •Not a report I have recently watched too closely but given recent price moves its worth starting to watch the commodity fx pairs more closely as well as the commodity indexes and components. Lets see if this DX breakdown holds. If it does these pairs will run. When they move they generally trend for extended...