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Weekly Technical Update – ‘Risk On Trade Losing Momentum’
by on Feb 14, 2012 •The Swiss team are pretty much where they were last week.Short term very overbought. Increasing divergences with selectiveness increasing as the broad based rally breaks down. A pull back before the final leg up to 1370 (and change) into end q1 early q2 before the cyclical bear resumes. The JPY and Nikkie very interesting and...
Chart Blitz – (A Purely Price Analysis)..
by on Feb 5, 2012 •Here we see the Dow cash which on Friday met her prior high set April 2011.. Its not a breakout yet on the dow cash but its very close now.. The wider S&P500 isn’t performing as well as the DOW for obvious reasons.. ie that large multinational cos are greatly prefered at present due to...
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Weekly Technical View & Macro Comments, ‘Near Term Overbought’..
by on Jan 24, 2012 •The Swiss team have changed their stance a little. The recent strength providing evidence that the pull back, when it comes, will be shallow and not severe. From their technical perspective, they judge, this move will likely therefore run to the end of March or early April and score a higher high across the broad...
Euro Farce Becomes a Euro Tragedy – Guns & Butter
by on Jan 11, 2012 •Guns or butter, or better both and debt, has been the choice of those in power of our coinage for centuries. Intervensionst central planners that can debase the currency always do with either guns or butter and in some, desperate cases, both. In contemporary terms nothing has changed. Its a common observation to see an...
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“Buy the Rumour Sell the News”
by on Dec 7, 2011 •We have had rumour on top of rumour. Central banks took action to liquify the system through their collateralized swap loans, equity markets were over sold and we recorded one of the best weeks for asset prices in years. Markets have risen nicely to resistances and tomorrow the euro meetings start. The good news is...
Chart Blitz
by on Nov 25, 2011 •So ends another week in the capital markets. Last week the technicals confirmed the macro fundamentals so that this weeks move was pretty inevitable. Everything fell into place in last week inc the inverse correlation of equity markets to the dx weakening. Although the macro picture seems to be worsening every day that passes (as...
David Einhorn’s Q3 Letter to Shareholders
by on Nov 10, 2011 •Apologies a few days late with this one but here below the brilliant Daid Einhorn’s Q3 letter to shareholders. Ill run through his latest entries in the next few days and update this post. He has made some exceptionally good calls in the last few months inc Vod, Green Mountain etc. I see he has...
‘Equities The Only Show in Town’.. Due to Unlimited Monetary Expansion
by on Oct 27, 2011 •Further to the post from a month ago.. http://www.capitalsynthesis.tech/international-equities-the-only-show-in-town/ Today was not about the European news flow. Today was simply a tiny portion of the wall of capital that is resting in cash and bonds entering the equity markets. Participants in cash are beginning to see the future and that future is all about a...
‘Tax The Rich’ Is the Developed World’s New Mantra
by on Oct 6, 2011 •http://www.businessinsider.com/italy-announces-higher-taxes-2011-9 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/sep/16/spain-raises-tax-on-rich http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-proposes-new-taxes-on-wealthy-for-half-of-debt-plan/2011/09/19/gIQATnkNfK_story.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/jul/27/property-tax-ireland-poll-tax http://business.financialpost.com/2011/08/24/france-cuts-growth-forecasts-raises-taxes-on-rich/ Name a DM country and you will see initiatives to tax the ‘rich’. Democracies merely rely on the majority verdict. If the majority want to expropriate everything from one or other group they can and often vote it through especially if media services pump the political spin. I flagged this...
International Equities.. ‘The Only Show in Town’
by on Oct 1, 2011 •1) Corporate debt cheap and getting cheaper. The yield curve is flattening. Healthy corporate debt yields will likely fall alongside Treasury and MBS yields. 2) Corporate earnings to all other asset classes at extreme positive multiples. To cash or near cash companies yields are on multiples of 10 to 15. ie pes of 4 not...
Key Inflection Point For Asset Markets
by on Sep 29, 2011 •We have found supports across many different asset markets from industrial metals to softs to equity markets. Vs this we have extreme political and central bank involvement in asset markets. Their actions are driving price potentially overwhelming the technical issues. Extreme spikes down are very possible therefore as the technical supports and up draft is...
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Buy Stocks – ‘Intermediate Low – Buy Weakness’ UBS Update
by on Sep 27, 2011 •UBS are of the view that the low is likely in for this leg of the cyclical bear. They do leave the door open to a retest of the lows of this leg in the next week or so but recommend any such move as a ‘buying opportunity’. October rebound scenario. Sectors etc are in...