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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Sept Correction/$ Basing” 10th Aug17
by on Aug 10, 2017 •Ok, another August week rolls by and, as so often seems to occur in August, we have a continuation of these choppy non directionally bias asset markets. We are by nature looking for direction across markets so we can expect a jump in volatility heading into September. This August looks very similar to August 2016...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Aug Top, Europe Corrective Bounce” 27th July17
by on Jul 27, 2017 •The weakness in the US$ has continued to support lead US equity indexes and commodities alike. This week I’m instead going to focus my words on the weaker non usd indexes especially given the likeliness of a bounce here in the US$. So the key price weakness in recent weeks has been European Indexes and...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – SP500 Last Leg Up into Aug – 21st July17
by on Jul 21, 2017 •Well no great surprises for readers here as the US$ has indeed debased and so the party can continue another leg with all the implications this entails re capital flows into em markets, commodities, bullion etc. Breadth across the US indexes remains weak but as a continuation within this leg of this bull market is...
Weekly Technical Analysis – “Trading Buy Gold” 13th July17
by on Jul 13, 2017 •Temperatures have hit 40 degrees in the last few days in the Balearic islands. The only place to be is on a boat which is exactly what i’m doing. Communications can be a little poor depending on my location so i’ll keep this short and sweet. This bull market is still alive and well and...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Summer Risk Top Next 5-10 Sessions” – 22nd June17
by on Jun 22, 2017 •Another week rolls past and we have a pick up in price volatility here and much continued weakness and threatened breakdown for commodities. We are starting to see the 2016 to 2017 reflation trade or “escape velocity” narrative that has underpinned much of this wave 5 starting to look very weak indeed. Technically we should...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “More Near Term Weakness” 15th June17
by on Jun 15, 2017 •Hi guys, we have some near term weakness here following on the failure to meaningfully breakout across risk indexes. Commodities remain very weak here and need to be watch. We should see at least one more attempt at the reflation trade continuation so entries on commodities, at the least for a bounce should show in...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – Tactically Toppish – 9th June17
by on Jun 9, 2017 •Reports wise, we have a continuation of the Swiss team’s view that US equity risk (sp500) is tactically toppish here before a July new mkt high beckons. We have talked before about predicting tactical moves within a strong bull mkt and how problematic this can be. In this last week, many indexes have broken out...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Minor Top This Week” 31st May17
by on Jun 1, 2017 •New highs for US equity market markets once again whilst the Europe takes a breather and the strong euro holding her indexes back for now. The Pound once again coming under pressure. If these near term supports fail the pound could produce a large move very both US$ and Euro, downwards. Commodities remain weak in...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Trading Bottom In Place” 24th May17
by on May 24, 2017 •Guys, we remain firmly inside this wave five and i do hope all are enjoying the ride here. I read this week Merrill Lynch Global Research are calling this wave five likely to become a “speculative mania” across all risk assets. “The longer it takes central banks to tighten, the greater the risk of a...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Consolidation, Gold Basing” 19th May17
by on May 19, 2017 •A week of significantly increased volatility with potentially a break of a key tactical supports for US (SPX 2380) and European equity indexes. Conversely a strong breakout for the euro with Aud, gold, oil and copper seeing decent bounces. The euro potentially resuming her cyclical uptrend vs the gbp. Lets cut to the analysis from...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Watch Commodities” 10th May17
by on May 10, 2017 •Another week roles by with more pain on the commodity side and more juice on the equity side with a new breakout in several Asian indexes playing the mean reversion catch up, though a long way to run to close the gap. Unfortunately i’m on a boat in the Ocean traveling and so I post...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Bullish Above Pivot 2329” – 3rd May17
by on May 3, 2017 •A bullish note from the guys again this week for US and European equity risk markets with a focus on the cyclicals and rotation back away from defensives. Given the impressive recent breadth its all very reasonable technical comment in my opinion also. Worthy of more comment is the commodity space. Commodities bottomed well in...