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Annual Technical Analysis Outlook – “Wave 5 Boom & Bust” – Jan 2017
by on Jan 6, 2017 •It gives me great pleasure to start 2017 with the usual award winning Annual Technical Outlook report from the guys. Of course none of of have a crystal ball but of all the thousands of reports I have read over the last few decades, including many very expensive mkt “expert” reports, I can say this...
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Christmas Technical Analysis – “Grade B” 24th Dec17
by on Dec 24, 2016 •So another year is nearly over and what a year it has been for both markets and the geopolitical landscape. Numbers wise, on the surface a year of the US$ and US equities, once again. As always we must look hard at the numbers and view them across currencies to see their relative performance. Here...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Distribution Ahead” – 7th Dec16
by on Dec 8, 2016 •Another strong week rolls by. We have strong seasonal winds here blowing us towards a positive end of year for risk, us$ risk included. But in the coming 3 weeks US$ risk may have lost its alpha crown with international risk, currency adjusted likely to be provide the out performance due to mean reversion catch...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – US Cyclicals Overbought & Sentiment Spikes 29th Nov16
by on Dec 1, 2016 •Firstly, apologies for the delay in posting this weeks report. I have been traveling and it proved impossible to post. We have extremes of over bought conditions for US equities, the US$ and interestingly, given the historic inverse correlation, many commodity themes also. Conversely we have bonds, precious metals and many defensive equities at deeply...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Overbought, Gold Basing” 23rd Nov16
by on Nov 24, 2016 •Another excellent week if you are involved in the long usd risk assets funded by borrowing other currencies. The Russell2000, Financials and Transports have provided the beta and in measured in the world currencies like jpy or euros or sgds they are up 15% in just a few weeks. Its a near vertical move and...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Risk Base Forming, Buy Weakness” 9th Nov16
by on Nov 9, 2016 •Its been a very significant week for risk markets. We have seen the complete reversal of the cyclical weakness themes vs defensive strength. Transports and Financials and other cyclical themes have moved from the negative beta to the positive beta. The evidence is compelling across asset classes. It is all due to fast rising inflationary...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Cash Testing 2120”
by on Nov 2, 2016 •After last week’s holiday from providing a release this week we have a bumper catch up release. We have major movements across risk asset markets. Equity indexes have a tactical correction in play with yesterday the Sp500 even breaking her 2120 level. But looking in more detail we can see the evidence of a sustained...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “More Tactical Weakness to Come” 19th Oct16 V2
by on Oct 19, 2016 •Its all about the US$, rates and US equity indexes. The dollar has broken out but needs to take a breath, rates have bounced considerably higher on the short end and following on from last week we have weakness in US equities but price has failed, as yet, to “break” key supports. We have a...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – SPX 8 to 10% Correction to End Oct – 14th Sept16
by on Sep 14, 2016 •Volatility has indeed jumped and so summer is officially over. The Swiss team have made a significant shift in their forecasts and have called the important medium term top on risk markets as in. In the near term a bounce but unlikely to make much progress beyond prior price highs. They forecast in stead an...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – SP500 to 2250, Breakout US EU Banks 6th Sept16
by on Sep 6, 2016 •Its been a very shallow trading range over the last month or so. We have some momentum coming back into the market as is so often the case in early September. I’m traveling unfortunately but i bring the Swiss team’s comments that are in line with the recent technical picture. Today’s weakness in the US$...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Watch the US$” 24th August 2016
by on Aug 24, 2016 •Markets have maintained a holiday like atmosphere with narrow trading ranges for several weeks now as volatility reduces across all asset classes. This, as the Swiss team suggest, is likely to change as the days roll by into the end of August. The latest report is a very carefully worded report with some key levels...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – Near Term Tactically Overbought – 16th Aug16
by on Aug 16, 2016 •The guys are back from their holidays but with a shortened report here. They pick up on the renewal of the commodity bull story which is the headline story in asset markets for me. Note GL, Anto, BHP (all of which i hold again). Commodity producer charts have surged over the last few months. Aside...