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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Risk’s Breakout Confirmed but Tactically Toppish” 27th July16
by on Jul 27, 2016 •The Swiss team latest report has concluded that wave 5 is underway though near term we are tactically toppish which is likely to get resolved in August to allow for the rally to resume into Sept. Some strategic issues remain with this bull market for now and need to get resolved. Surely their resolution tells...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Make or Break Across Risk” 20th July16
by on Jul 20, 2016 •Another week has gone by but right across international risk there is very little new evidence from price here. We can look across US sectors like the small caps or russel2000 or transports or banking or tech sector or high yield or whatever you chose and there is no meaningful new evidence from price. Internationally...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Breakout or Fake” 13th July16
by on Jul 13, 2016 •Another good week for risk assets across the world but lead again by the strong US equity indexes of the sp500 and Dow Jones. The sp500 has made new record highs but lead by utilities, consumer discretionary and housing indexes. The cyclical sectors of soxx and nasdaq100, Russel 2000 have not yet confirmed the move...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Europe On The Edge” 6th July16
by on Jul 7, 2016 •Another week roles by and pricing of risk assets continues to diverge between US risk and world risk. US risk continues to be well bid vs the rest of the world. With the sp500 still close to record highs. Within the US markets breadth remains a key issue with some important cyclical sectors showing bad...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Cyclical Bear Market” 29th June 2016 V2
by on Jun 29, 2016 •What a week it has been. We have seen volatility to the upside and then crashing downward across risk on. The Sp500 broke her 2025 level and her 200 dma. She is bouncing here to currently her 50% retracement level but has scored significant technical damage to lead indexes like the US banks, Transports. Across...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Sp500 Corrective Top” 18th May 2016
by on May 18, 2016 •The market has continued to chop up and the short term correlations are diverging from their medium and longer term correlations indication market indecision here (and for bears the end of the corrective bounce). Across asset classes we looking for direction here and volatility looks set to rise significantly from here in the coming weeks....
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 2033/2022 As Initial Target” 4th May16
by on May 4, 2016 •Markets have moved lower and volatility has stepped up across fx and rest of world equities but alas not the US indexes as yet. US longs are not panicking as yet and so another micro bounce attempt at the recent resistance does appear likely again for US indexes. Currencies wise the US$ spiking down on...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Still A Distributive Top Building Process” 27th April16
by on Apr 27, 2016 •We have a complex multi asset technical stand off here with price not confirming either bear or bull camp either way here. And on initial price confirmation we have to also be prepared for a confirmation and then failure scenario as this is the classic formation for a momentum move. We have the Fed and...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Highs in Risk This Week Setting up Significant Correction” 19th April16 V3
by on Apr 20, 2016 •Back in Dec15 when the bear move started, it was pretty clear that the move was early and needed to be tested before this multi year bull market was truly toast. On the most recent wave of the risk rebound we needed to get to a rally point where the early bears would be throwing...
A Brave New World in Synthesis..
by on Apr 15, 2016 •Anyone that does any macro thinking at present surely arrives at some very strange states of new realities. One small example. Central banks, given unlimited powers, will be the ultimate buyer of all assets. Given Nirp (negative interest rate policy) and a constant high bid on the order books by the buyer of last resort...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Markets Vulnerable” 5th April16
by on Apr 6, 2016 •Another week rolls by. Asset classes, sp500 and nas100 aside, are confirming the bearish macro landscape for risk assets and continuation of the cyclical bear. Without a new price breakout by key US sectors and indexes the issue remains a timing one for when the bear across all risk assets will resume. Indeed if the...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Tactically Toppish” 29th March16
by on Mar 30, 2016 •Another week quickly comes around and the major macro event, following on from the ultra easy ECB, was the soothing dovish Fed. Price has reacted positively for the bulls with the sp500 making margin new highs. World indexes not confirming the move although currency adjusted it looks better as the US$ has weakened a little....