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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Buy Weakness” 18th Nov15
by on Nov 19, 2015 •We have yet more soothing sounds from Central banks and asset markets appear to be preparing for the usual Christmas rally. In spite of the remaining technical issues cash is a dangerous asset in this world of understated inflation and persistently attentive central banks. It was right to go long on the lows of a...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “US Yields Breaking Out” 11th Nov15
by on Nov 12, 2015 •Some good reports this week with much discussion on the macro significance of the data and instrument movements. Breakouts by rates and US$ index, breakdown defensive utilities. Fitzpatrick commenting that the inflation benign tailwinds from lower oil prices is likely behind us setting up for a cyclical rally attempt vs defensive issues. As always monetary...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Still Overbought & Vulnerable” 04th Nov15 v2
by on Nov 5, 2015 •I’m traveling again so apologies for the delaying in issuing. This has been a nose bleeding retrace for dm equity markets. S&P close to making her prior highs. Nas100 new highs. From an allocation perspective, whatever the allocation be whether currencies, pms, bonds or commodities confusion reigns here. Usually confusion preempts a trend change, in...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Still Overbought” 27th Oct15
by on Oct 28, 2015 •The ECB and then the BOC certainly helped equity markets over come some key resistances. The Euro was dumped propelling European equities into breakouts of their recent down trends. Participants were forced to short cover and any late to the bear camp have been “rolled over”. Its worth noting that overall putcall ratios are nearly...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – Short Term Overbought 13th October15
by on Oct 13, 2015 •I’m conscious participants here are eager for the latest comments from the Swiss team so here their latest report. I’ll update this release tomorrow with more reports and comment. Here the Swiss team: wklytech-13-10-15 As a very quick comment whilst i agree with much in their report I don’t have confirmation of the reassertion of...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – SPX 1900 Support 2020 Key Resistance – 7th Oct15
by on Oct 7, 2015 •We have a very divided set of views this week from the various technical teams. Searching for consensus among the teams is that this recent bullish reversal will likely run out of steam very soon so certainly chasing or evening covering shorts at this precise point in the market appears a dumb thing to me....
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “October Falls” 30th Sept15 v2
by on Sep 30, 2015 •The Swiss team are traveling so no comment from the guys and not much need for a comment and no levels and price action particularly demands comment for now. Near term it looks like a bounce is in progress off some key supports for several equity markets lead by asia over night. This is the...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Strength – Sell/Take Profit” 15th Sept15 V3
by on Sep 16, 2015 •Guys, Big news day tomorrow that, in my opinion, defines if the bear rejoins in the next few days or he is put off for a few weeks to come. Its a timing and levels issue this not a trend issue, if you follow. More comments tomorrow but I like the short Nikkie long jpy...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Sp500 Rebound into Mid September” 9th Sept15
by on Sep 10, 2015 •Another great report from the Swiss team here below. Its very tricky to plot the anatomy of the forthcoming ending of the bull market and the various twists and turns of a hard correction. Nonetheless it seems the team are doing a good job of doing just that. Volatility is continuing with the Nikkie moving...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Sp500 Rebound Into End Sept” 2nd Sept15
by on Sep 3, 2015 •The highlights for me from last week’s bear attach was the short sharp explosion in volatility together with a short term liquidity drain from the market. The most notable other issue was the euro carry trade de-lever which spiked up the euro even as markets fell. Commodities generally fell as US$ also fell. To me...
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Technical Analysis Update – “Weak Technical Picture Remains” 21st July15
by on Jul 21, 2015 •Guys Ive just received this and I realize many here are market timing these asset markets on the short term. I post this up in a timely manner here so as to not delay participants getting this perspective. Asset markets are getting interesting here is my immediate comment. I have a great deal of reports...
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Interim Technical Update – “Volatility Continues to Rise” 8th July15
by on Jul 8, 2015 •Volatility rising and widening across asset classes internationally now. Its all part of the normal historic trend of rising volatility pre a trend change, imo. I wouldn’t go aggressively short yet but it was correct to move to a high cash level as of a month or so ago. Here a few updates: Firstly GS:...