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Annual Technical Analysis Forecast Update – “Reflation Cycle End” 26th Jan19
by on Jan 25, 2019 •Guys, I’ll update this in real time through out the weekend but here for starters is the summary of the usual annual technical forecast update, albeit in a new mifi2 compliant ie proprietary format. A small change that I make our Capitalsynthesis a closed group and enrollment is by invitation only or by reference of...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 & FI Tactical Bounce, Europe Global -Beta” 2nd April18 V2
by on Apr 2, 2018 •Happy Easter guys, 2018 has indeed played out according to the expectation of higher volatility against a back drop of a trend change price distribution and ending of this 8 year bull market for US risk. As we look across US cyclical risk from the sp500 to the Russel2000 to the nas100 its all still...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Risk Positive into Deeper March” 5th March 2018 V2
by on Mar 5, 2018 •We have a continuation of volatility across risk here albeit providing a fairly constructive long set up for US risk and even most international risk cyclical markets. To try and summarize the recent price moves using the sp500 as lead here: The US Sp500 scored a new price high in January on excellent breadth, albeit...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Feb SP500 Pull Back” – 4th Feb18
by on Feb 5, 2018 •Another week rolls by and we finally have some market volatility and a negative week of price action. Its broad based across all risk markets, globally. For technicians it was an interesting (tactical) price top set up with a narrow upward channel for most US$ risk through out Jan18. Breadth has been excellent and across...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – 2018 OUTLOOK 22nd Jan18
by on Jan 22, 2018 •A happy Monday to all and I do hope you are enjoying this bullish extension of this wave five impressive bull market in risk assets. Its been a water shed week with the final breakdown of the 38 year secular bull market for world interest rates. (Where US rates go world rates follow pretty quickly)....
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Weekly Technical Analysis – 2018 Outlooks – 11th Jan18
by on Jan 11, 2018 •Hi Guys, I trust all are well rested and back to the markets with renewed energy and focus. Hopefully all are enjoying the continuation of this setup in risk which started with new momentum early dec. Its been a blistering start to the new year with all risk adding weight, the dollar debasing. The rally...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Overshooting, Gold Basing” 20th Dec17 V2
by on Dec 20, 2017 •Hi guys, a good week has passed with what looks and feels like the usual Santa rally in motion. US equities have set more record highs and although the 52 week highs are divergent from the prior wave they still have achieved near +2 STD from the mean levels of 52 wk highs which is...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Watch SP500 Support 2625” 15th Dec17
by on Dec 15, 2017 •Holiday season is upon us and the seasonal strength shines through. After the strong momentum and renewed breadth we have seen on US equities there were clear signs of higher highs yet to come and sure enough we have seen that continuation set up. World equities have bounced but yet to have a clear signal...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Rising Selectivity in Global Equities” 30th Nov17 V2
by on Nov 30, 2017 •Rising selectivity in global equities is correct but nonetheless with ever higher highs in major US indexes. And whats more, in the last few sessions, we have significant price moves as lead cyclical indexes of transports and banking have price confirmed the fresh price breakouts. We have to acknowledge there is now plenty of confirming...
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Weekly Technical Analysis “Short Dax, Nik225” 15th Nov17
by on Nov 15, 2017 •We appear to have a market again here with prices rising and falling in a normal manner as opposed to the prior drift ever upward of recent months. Whilst the main US equity markets continue to see low volatility moves, price continues to be close to all time record highs, volatility is increasing and price...
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Weekly Technical Analysis V2 – “Divergences in Out performers, Watch Transports” 26th Oct17
by on Oct 26, 2017 •Another week rolls by with sp500 price at almost the identical level she closed at the week before. Volatility has risen a little however with a reversal price bar but no follow through as yet. Lead cyclicals like transports, soxx, tech and finance either not achieving much change or slightly down. World indexes are also...
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Weekly Technical Analysis V2 – “Sp500 Losing Momentum & Vulnerable” 19th Oct17
by on Oct 19, 2017 •The drift on up has continued across global equity markets with a consecutive 13 day straight run of higher highs for the Nikkei. The first time this has occurred for nearly 20 years since 1998. Whoever thinks you cant make nominal prices rise via monetary means was clearly on the wrong side of that trade....