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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Bearish Bellow 2040, Bullish Above 2097” 17th March15
by on Mar 17, 2015 •Its the time of the week for another technical run through the major world asset markets. As so often is the case much seems to rest on the decision of the world’s central bankers. The Eurusd is very extended and is affecting all asset markets. Nonetheless, it seems any manner of technical setup can be...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Likely Test of 1970 to 2000” 11th March14 “V2”
by on Mar 11, 2015 •I’m traveling again I’m afraid so i’m going to have to update this on the move. The sell off was well flagged technically so, at the least, hedges were the order of the day on the reversal bar from last Tuesday. For more aggressive price traders Thursday provided a weak bull response setting up the...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Closing Break Of 2100 SPX Negative” 4th March14 – V2
by on Mar 4, 2015 •Apologies team a lot to catch up on in terms price action and all the various technical indicators and sentiment. Let me start with the reports as there are a lot here to update with: Firstly the Swiss team’s latest: wklytech-03-3-15 SPX 2100 is broken. (As I update this end of day the break at...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Gold Near To Bottom” 24th Feb14 v3
by on Feb 24, 2015 •I’m traveling again. Full regular update tomorrow but here the Swiss team’s latest in the mean time. wklytech-24-2-15 (Updating as i travel). Here Fitzpatrick cb-tech-21-2-15 And an update on the oil trade: cb-oil2; And here some nice longer range work on where we are in the cycle: cyclemap-20-2-15 And here Danske on rates: danse-rates More...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “US Bull Intact” 18th Feb15 V2
by on Feb 19, 2015 •In spite of world growth slowing dramatically and US Corporates struggling with the resurgent US$ her equity markets appear to have sufficient strength to avoid a correction. Sectors wise US housing is leading the charge making consistent higher highs. Technology and Biotech within this are also in breakout and strongly. The market breadth of the...
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Weekly Technical Interim Update – “Cyclical Model Adjustment SP500 Breakout” 14th Feb15
by on Feb 14, 2015 •Investing and trading is only and always about probabilities. The probability of a severe correction in global equity markets had a window to occur. The probability for markets to take this window is passing as resistances are overcome and capital sustains her march out of cash and into assets. Central banks are determined to flush...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 2064 Key Res” 10th Feb15 v2
by on Feb 11, 2015 •Equity markets are marching onward again it seems with a renewal of the bull trend across many world indexes. German equities are on fire to the upside with Japan threatening a breakout and Singapore already in breakout in in spite of the weakness across the em data. On the macro front, we have a lot...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Bullion Buy The Dips” 3rd Feb15
by on Feb 4, 2015 •European equities have a strong monetary tailwind for now. Unlike the Yen and US$ quantitative move the euro has debased prior to the commencement of the euro OMT program which commences in March. This effectively creates an even warmer tailwind to euro equities especially exporters though from a macro perspective how long this can sustain...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Gold Surprising To Upside, Even Structurally” 27th Jan15
by on Jan 28, 2015 •Another week of volatility sustains. It was a historic week for news flow as the ECB finally pressed the OMT button. Not a collective quantitative OMT action but performed via the NCBs (National Central Banks). If the devil is in the detail of these sort of policy announcements this was the certainly the detail. In...
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Technical FX Update – “Beware the Euro Bounce” 23rd Jan14
by on Jan 23, 2015 •Its been a blisteringly positive start to the year if you were short euros and long assets. Volatility remains at very elevated levels and trends are long with very few corrections across asset markets. Leverage remains at record levels and many instrument trade levels are at record level extremes. Ie long US$ positions. None of...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Distribution Above 1972” 21st Jan15
by on Jan 21, 2015 •Its been an extremely busy start to the year with volatility staying high across most asset classes. FX and the PMs have stepped up a gear. The US$ bull market has been truly impressive. As impressive as the euro’s bear market. The SNB’s decision has thrown risk management into total confusion as historic volatility in...
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Weekly Technical Analysis Update v2 – 13th Jan15
by on Jan 13, 2015 •Its that time of the week again. We had a high momentum, reasonable volume given a normally quiet period, sell off for equities from trading day 1 2015. The technical issues are well flagged but price pattern wise having achieved a very recent higher high on many of the major indexes and sector indexes the...