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Weekly Technical Comments – “Air is Getting Thin”
by on Jan 23, 2013 •The Swiss team’s latest report below. Conditions are becoming over bought across many sectors. The internals of 52wk highs not confirming the breakout. Sentiment close to contrarian levels. Things do appear to be setting up for some sort of correction but the price actions doesn’t indicate a top as yet, as they point out. Energy...
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2013 Technical Forecast, Cycles, Correlations, Inter Market Analysis & Comment..
by on Jan 8, 2013 •The Swiss team have done themselves proud once again. Words fail me. A superb analysis. Lets see if they can win the European technical team for 2013 as they did in 2012. To the report specifically. There is much to digest here. What I continue to admire about their approach is that it’s probability driven....
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Weekly Technical Comments – “Momentum Work Toppish, Watch Gold, EMs Bullish”
by on Dec 18, 2012 •Another great and final macro technical report for 2012 from the Swiss team. I’m in the process of my annual migration to the mountains so i’ll simply post up the report for now. Weekly18-12 I’ll comment more meaningfully tomorrow but quickly I believe the rotation is in full motion against a back drop of multi...
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Seymour’s Equity Research – “Inflationary Deflation” Report
by on Dec 17, 2012 •Seymour Equity have produced an outstanding report here. The attached document cuts to the core of the macro and cyclical issues facing the various asset classes. Its makes extensive use of the Kondratieff long wave theories and explains these for us. This is useful for those new to these theories. (Its worthy of note that Dr...
WF Securities 2013 Fundamental Economic Forecast – “The New Normal”
by on Dec 14, 2012 •Wells provide us the first 2013 fundamental projection report. Many more will follow of course and I’ll try and post up as many of these as I can to see what themes emerge. The Wells report is a US centric report, to my mind. I pick this single chart out from the report. This is...
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Weekly Technical Comments – “S&P500 Capped Near Term 1430 to 1440, Shanghai Based & Watch Silver”
by on Dec 11, 2012 •Another great macro technical report from the Swiss team. There is a lot of detail in the report from regional index comment to sector comment to commodity comments. Its a full report which i find hard to disagree with. The cyclical story is unfolding. Fundamentally it remains unproven for the moment but technically there is...
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Weekly Market Roundup – “Over Weight High Yield Equities, Under Weight Cash”
by on Dec 10, 2012 •SC stick to the same themes they have held for the last year now. Namely over weight high yield equities and FI and under weight cash, money market funds. They like oil and gold for the geo political hedges they provide. I also include their fx round up and forward looking which is released today....
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Weekly Technical Comments – Near Term Overbought But New Highs For Q1 2013.
by on Dec 5, 2012 •The Swiss team remain bullish and pro risk. Near term they forecast these overbought conditions to be worked off a little before new highs are achieved. They remain true to their buy their cyclical forecasts though admit that these themes have disappointed thus far. They pick out the Shanghai and the gold miners are being...
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Weekly Technical Comments – “Oversold But (SP500) 1320 Possible to the Downside”
by on Nov 13, 2012 •Another solid report from the swiss team. They acknowledge the correction has “expanded” but they stick to their bullish call that this is a correction and rotation rather than the ending of the 2009 bull market. On the plus side the seasonals are good from here and many sectors remain constructive including many European markets....
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Weekly Market Roundup – “US Equities Vulnerable Short Term But Weakness An Opportunity To Average In”
by on Nov 9, 2012 •SC sticking to their defensive yielding blue chip equities theme. Buy the dips is their view with 1370 and 1345 buying zones in their opinion. Fund flows to fixed income and money market funds as well as the level of bearishness in the market leads me to mirror their view at present. I’m out of...
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Weekly Bullion Technical Comments – “Short Term Bearish, Medium Term Bearish”
by on Nov 8, 2012 •I’d like them to explain themselves a little more than they have done in the past but we have to hand it to the German team they have “nailed” the bullion weakness in recent months. Only the false break to the upside made the question their call and this questioning lasted only a week or...