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Chart Blitz.. (A Purely Price Analysis)
by on Jan 13, 2012 •We have many instruments at resistances or supports.. We have had an excellent run and the loan data is coming through more positively for both the US and China. The YM or dow futures having enjoyed a near 20% run up from the Oct lows looking like she needs a breather if merely just to...
A Quick Refresher.. Jobs, Population, USD Reserves & Inflationary Expropriations
by on Jan 12, 2012 •The US population expands yoy by approximately 1.5% (producing a doubling time of about 45 years). The rate of change here has not diminished. Every new entrant needs an auto loan, housing loan, student loan etc. In a world of exponential curves the curve of population growth and debt creation look likely to continue, for...
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Weekly Technical Comments – Bearish – SP500 Capped between 1292 to 1304 (Target 1158)
by on Jan 10, 2012 •The Swiss team maintain their bearish stance. They are ignoring all the fundamental news re debt growth etc. Purely from the technicals they are calling a near term top. SP500 futures currently at 1290 so getting very close to their sell level. Techweekly10-01-12 As we sit here today it looks a bold call having many...
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2012 Forecasts..
by on Jan 9, 2012 •As attached from MS.. I have to say up front that disagree with the basic premise that stimulus is coming to an end. We have negative interest rates and imo these will widen as inflation rises. Direct QE may not be needed should credit growth expand as the fed, boe, ecb desire but on any...
2011 Investment and Trading Performance Review..
by on Jan 6, 2012 •Apologies for how overdue this document is.. precious precious time is always the problem.. and the older i get the more i realize just how precious it is.. Wrinkles are appearing where there were none before and this has encouraged me to be more careful with my investment of this precious resource. So i hope...
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“Buy the Rumour Sell the News”
by on Dec 7, 2011 •We have had rumour on top of rumour. Central banks took action to liquify the system through their collateralized swap loans, equity markets were over sold and we recorded one of the best weeks for asset prices in years. Markets have risen nicely to resistances and tomorrow the euro meetings start. The good news is...
“Buy The Rumour Sell the News”
by on Dec 5, 2011 •Following the central bank’s actions last Tuesday its been right to wait and see how prices of the different asset classes have reacted to the intervensions before commenting and taking too many actions. On the news last week, it was correct to add risk via reducing the hedging shorts and adding a few euros. The...
Weekly Technical Comments – Xmas Rally in Place (Subject to 1158 sp500 holding)..
by on Nov 29, 2011 •Here attached the UBS pair’s weekly technical comments.. They are maintaining their bullish stance re equities and pro risk assets generally. They don’t mention the eurusd specifically but state they are bearish on the dx and so we have to assume they are bullish on the euro as the dx is mainly the eurusd pair....
Summary Its a Bacon Slicer – ‘We Are All Doomed But Some Less Than Others’
by on Nov 24, 2011 •Where to start.. Firstly, apologies for not posting sooner. I will post some technical charts up after this brief comment. France, Germany and Italy made a joint statement out of Frankfurt today that the ECB will remain independent and that there would be no undue pressure from sovereign states to enforce the ECB to monetize...
Euro Farse – Update..
by on Nov 17, 2011 •As previously noted here, the ‘final solution’ re Europe’s debt deleveraging must come from either the ECB and or IMF. It should come as no surprise then that Euro officials are working along side the IMF to work around the ECB non monetization of debt legal constraints. Last night the IMF Head of European matters...
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Monetary History – The Day After the 1976 Peso Devaluation…
by on Nov 16, 2011 •A personal story extracted from swissmetalassets.com link provided below. In 1976 Mexico devalued her peso vs the US$ by 50% “Everyone in the country was in shock. People’s net worth had devalued more than 53% overnight. The value in savings accounts dropped in half and neither merchants nor consumers knew how to react because they...
Stocks to Outperform Cash by, at least, 460%. Dow Target 61846
by on Nov 14, 2011 •We cannot know how effective the debt monetization will be and therefore the degree of inflation and financial repression that will be called for. We can be 99% certain that the money printers will do all they can to implement the financial repression model as far as the eye can see in an attempt to...