The Sovereign Debt Default Process.. Dc.Marc Faber
by on Nov 11, 2011 •As discussed previously, we are getting ever closer to massive debt monetization by central banks and or the IMF due to the ever worsening fiscal position of ‘developed world’ sovereign entities. It seems to me a reminder for us all on the history and theory from specialists in the area would be useful here and...
Weekly Technical View.. Equities Vunerable
by on Nov 9, 2011 •The UBS boys maintaining a generally bullish stance towards equities up to end q1 2012. Near term, equities over bought and due a pull back which could last to end of Nov. SP500 above 1883 is a buy.. Below this would set off some alarm bells. They are also bearish oil from 100 usds. They...
Euro Farce… cont.. (Update – ECB Lowers Rates & Greece Cancels Referendum)
by on Nov 3, 2011 •ECB has just announced it is lowering interest rates.. This is almost entirely due to the ever increasing spread to German bunds we are witnessing in the debt markets. The measure will assist but its no where near enough.. And, better than a soap opera, 48hrs after announcing a Greek referendum on the bailout, its...
Weekly Economic Data.. 28th Oct..
by on Oct 29, 2011 •An excellent report from WF this week.. the data in the US is mixed but the latest GDP forecasts improved.. (GDP always rises in a positive inflation environment as governments understate inflation and therefore over state GDP growth. The oldest trick in the book of course). Wonderfully WF picks up on the ‘financial repression’ strategy....
‘Equities The Only Show in Town’.. Due to Unlimited Monetary Expansion
by on Oct 27, 2011 •Further to the post from a month ago.. http://www.capitalsynthesis.tech/international-equities-the-only-show-in-town/ Today was not about the European news flow. Today was simply a tiny portion of the wall of capital that is resting in cash and bonds entering the equity markets. Participants in cash are beginning to see the future and that future is all about a...
Weekly Technical Update.. Short Term Corrective Move Consistent Within Rally
by on Oct 18, 2011 •Report here below.. will update later with, hopefully, more meaningful comments as under time pressure here.. Rich UBSWeekly18-10
A European Farce.. Inc Update2
by on Oct 18, 2011 •We had a decent bounce in equities across the world in the last few weeks. We have a mild retrace at present which is needed to allow the indexes to push onward again soon. Pick your levels as entries to join the rally but keep stops fairly close given the issues we see all around...
Weekly Economic Indicators (WF) -14th Oct 2011
by on Oct 15, 2011 •We continue to see no ‘off the cliff’ sort of declines in the leading economic indicators. Just as there was a disconnect earlier in the year as regards the weakening data and high equity valuations so too, on the lows of 2 weeks ago, there was a disconnect between the weak (though not disasterous) economic...
Consumer Credit.. Signs of Life..
by on Sep 29, 2011 •http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/29/uk-mortgage-approvals-idUKTRE78S16A20110929 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/30-year-mortgage-at-record-low-401-2011-09-29-100200?link=MW_home_latest_news And in the Wells Fargo analysis we saw yesterday that US consumer credit has increased mainly due to a mini boom in student credit. http://globalbasic.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=447264&cust=global-basic&year=2011#top Rich
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Buy Stocks – ‘Intermediate Low – Buy Weakness’ UBS Update
by on Sep 27, 2011 •UBS are of the view that the low is likely in for this leg of the cyclical bear. They do leave the door open to a retest of the lows of this leg in the next week or so but recommend any such move as a ‘buying opportunity’. October rebound scenario. Sectors etc are in...
Dr Marc Faber Succinctly Summarizes on Reuters.. 22nd Sept
by on Sep 24, 2011 •Dr Faber’s track record is really something. Here on Reuters from the 22nd summing up the history and forward perspectives perfectly for us. “Globally something is awfully wrong”. http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=uidTWASIA&cid=265773&shareToken=MzpkMzJjMDcxNi03YTcyLTQ5YzAtYWEyZC05ZWY4Y2MyZGFiMjU%3D&start=0&end=303 “I think the US dollar will continue to strengthen”. “Meaningful slowdown in the Chinese economy coming. Will it collapse or slow down is a different issue....
30 Year Treasuries at 3% Yield – Fed ‘Twists’ & Targets the Long End
by on Sep 21, 2011 •No expansion of the balance sheet. The Fed to: 1) Roll over expiring short term treasuries on to long term treasuries 2) To actively sell $400bn of short end treasuries and buy longer dated treasuries 3) To roll over mortgage back securities that the fed holds on her balance sheet to push mortgage rates lower....