Today Stagflation, Next Stop Hyper Inflation
by on Sep 18, 2011 •US jobless claims rise again this week. Manufacturing PMI data from across the world weakens as world wide inflation continues to surge as all measures of money supply surge upwards. Please join the dots folks. A tsunami of wealth transference has started and is progressively accelerating.. Please be ready and prepared. If you are still...
Markets..
by on Aug 5, 2011 •What a week its been and not the week to go on vacation it seems.. The sp500 has moved down 10% in the last 5 days. Dow around 8% or so. Oil has fallen by nearly 15% in the last week but was already more than 15% off her high of the year. Oil’s move...
Morgan Stanley OIL & Asset Allocations June2011
by on Jul 16, 2011 •Morgan-Stanley-Asset-Allocation-Strategy Morgan’s are bullish commodities and now forecasting oil spare capacity to have completely disappeared by Q3 2013. 2011 q1 saw Morgan’s get on board with peak oil. (the cynics may say a sell signal.. lol). Near term they expect some weakness especially with the Saudis and US,Europe releasing stores. Total bpd increase in june/july...
Euro Bank Stress Tests – 8 fail
by on Jul 15, 2011 •Well, 8 failed the tests.. 8 failing sort of implies there was a test at least.. which is quite possibly the reason why a few have failed. They are uniformly small banks, mostly in Spain. The capital required to make them pass is a mere 3.5bn usds or around 0.01% of euro annual gdp. So,...
US Treasuries. who is buying?
by on Jul 11, 2011 •Primary dealers have upped their purchases as foreign buying has declined. As the fed’s qe program provided a ready buyer the dealers could make a decent turn and underwrite the issuance. Risk free, easy money. But with the end of qe2 (sustained fed balance sheet however) the dealers may get squeezed out here. Certainly it...
China Raises Rates, can’t sell Bonds, Trade Surplus Widens
by on Jul 10, 2011 •Having narrowed recently, the trade surplus is widening again. Why? According to China’s own data she has been using stores of food and metals. Copper imports are slightly up from the prior month (but remember the prior month was very low for copper imports due to draining her stores – note copx price very high...