Entries/Exists / Fixed Income / Fundamental Indicators / Indexes / Markets / PMs / Technical trading
Weekly Technical Comments – Bearish – SP500 Capped between 1292 to 1304 (Target 1158)
by on Jan 10, 2012 •The Swiss team maintain their bearish stance. They are ignoring all the fundamental news re debt growth etc. Purely from the technicals they are calling a near term top. SP500 futures currently at 1290 so getting very close to their sell level. Techweekly10-01-12 As we sit here today it looks a bold call having many...
Commodities / Economics / Entries/Exists / Fixed Income / Fundamental Indicators / Indexes / Markets / PMs / Property
2012 Forecasts..
by on Jan 9, 2012 •As attached from MS.. I have to say up front that disagree with the basic premise that stimulus is coming to an end. We have negative interest rates and imo these will widen as inflation rises. Direct QE may not be needed should credit growth expand as the fed, boe, ecb desire but on any...
2011 Investment and Trading Performance Review..
by on Jan 6, 2012 •Apologies for how overdue this document is.. precious precious time is always the problem.. and the older i get the more i realize just how precious it is.. Wrinkles are appearing where there were none before and this has encouraged me to be more careful with my investment of this precious resource. So i hope...
The Deflationary Gorilla Vs The World’s Inflationary Central Banks cont..
by on Dec 28, 2011 •The battle continues. In spite of all the inflationary juice the world’s central banks are pouring into asset markets the world wide the debt deleveraging 1000 pound gorilla is back in town and has started to hit asset markets into touch here. Only a massive increase beyond the existing massive increases in central bank balancesheets...
Portfolio Allocations & Markets.. The Multi Asset BEAR is Very Close Now..
by on Dec 14, 2011 •Ok, so where are we? In my opinion, the old trader’s line of ‘buy the rumour sell the news’ has been spot on. Seasonals have a part but they don’t drive the market. We are, therefore, in the process of the entire ‘risk on’ trend breaking. As a general technical and fundamental comment, rather than...
Commodities / Companies / Economics / Entries/Exists / Fixed Income / Fundamental Indicators / FX / Indexes / Markets / PMs / Technical trading
“Buy the Rumour Sell the News”
by on Dec 7, 2011 •We have had rumour on top of rumour. Central banks took action to liquify the system through their collateralized swap loans, equity markets were over sold and we recorded one of the best weeks for asset prices in years. Markets have risen nicely to resistances and tomorrow the euro meetings start. The good news is...
Central Bank of Zimbabwe Governor “Worried About the US Dollar”
by on Dec 7, 2011 •This is a wonderful story that i had to post up. Gideon Gono, the infamous Governor of the Central Bank of Zimbabwe, is worried about the US dollar it seems. From 2010 he has pegged his country’s currency to the dollar. He is interpretting recent events re the continued printing of money and debt monetizations...
“Buy The Rumour Sell the News”
by on Dec 5, 2011 •Following the central bank’s actions last Tuesday its been right to wait and see how prices of the different asset classes have reacted to the intervensions before commenting and taking too many actions. On the news last week, it was correct to add risk via reducing the hedging shorts and adding a few euros. The...
Central Banks Swaps Lines Attempt to Re-set Pro Risk Rally
by on Nov 30, 2011 •I dont have time now to comment fully now but the latest central bank action represents massive intervension in the fx markets. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-29/stock-futures-in-u-s-decline-after-bank-ratings-cut-by-standard-poor-s.html In summary its clear signal to market participants that no cash is safe. That central banks will be willing to accept overseas soverign debt junk (ie euro debt) as acceptable collateral for...
Summary Its a Bacon Slicer – ‘We Are All Doomed But Some Less Than Others’
by on Nov 24, 2011 •Where to start.. Firstly, apologies for not posting sooner. I will post some technical charts up after this brief comment. France, Germany and Italy made a joint statement out of Frankfurt today that the ECB will remain independent and that there would be no undue pressure from sovereign states to enforce the ECB to monetize...
Euro Farse – Update..
by on Nov 17, 2011 •As previously noted here, the ‘final solution’ re Europe’s debt deleveraging must come from either the ECB and or IMF. It should come as no surprise then that Euro officials are working along side the IMF to work around the ECB non monetization of debt legal constraints. Last night the IMF Head of European matters...
Commodities / Economics / Emerging Markets / Fixed Income / Fundamental Indicators / FX / Indexes / PMs
Monetary History – The Day After the 1976 Peso Devaluation…
by on Nov 16, 2011 •A personal story extracted from swissmetalassets.com link provided below. In 1976 Mexico devalued her peso vs the US$ by 50% “Everyone in the country was in shock. People’s net worth had devalued more than 53% overnight. The value in savings accounts dropped in half and neither merchants nor consumers knew how to react because they...