Stocks to Outperform Cash by, at least, 460%. Dow Target 61846
by on Nov 14, 2011 •We cannot know how effective the debt monetization will be and therefore the degree of inflation and financial repression that will be called for. We can be 99% certain that the money printers will do all they can to implement the financial repression model as far as the eye can see in an attempt to...
Markets..
by on Nov 8, 2011 •Everything running surprisingly smoothly at present.. long may it last. We know the consensus was very negative on the recent lows. We also know fund redemptions have been severe and that companies are sitting on cash heavy balance sheets. These positive factors seem to be holding up and the market and the momentum is to...
Weekly Fundamental Indicators..
by on Nov 5, 2011 •WF weekly review.. The data is ok. Things are very weak. So weak that the data on jobs is barely positive. The manufacturing ISM reading was 0.8 over zero growth. Ie sub 50 would infer a contraction of economic activity.. The ISM has come down to 50.8. Is this good news.. not really.. Although it...
Euro Farce… cont.. (Update – ECB Lowers Rates & Greece Cancels Referendum)
by on Nov 3, 2011 •ECB has just announced it is lowering interest rates.. This is almost entirely due to the ever increasing spread to German bunds we are witnessing in the debt markets. The measure will assist but its no where near enough.. And, better than a soap opera, 48hrs after announcing a Greek referendum on the bailout, its...
45.8m Americans Recieving Food Stamps – A New Record Aug 2011
by on Nov 2, 2011 •GDP apparently increasing as unemployment rises and incomes fall. The latest food stamp data shows an 8.1% increase yoy in the number of Americans receiving food benefits as their incomes are insufficient to feed themselves. Its an interesting two tier system where over half the American population pay no income taxes at all now. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/u-s-food-stamp-use-reaches-record-45-8-million-usda-says.html...
Weekly Technical Update.. & Comments..
by on Nov 1, 2011 •UBS still insisting the bounce is intact and to buy the dips so long as sp500 cash stays above 1220 on a closing basis. Weekly01-11 Well, we are at 1218 on the sp500 cash now and below this on futures. We are therefore at a key level now which is repeating across currencies and other...
Weekly Economic Data.. 28th Oct..
by on Oct 29, 2011 •An excellent report from WF this week.. the data in the US is mixed but the latest GDP forecasts improved.. (GDP always rises in a positive inflation environment as governments understate inflation and therefore over state GDP growth. The oldest trick in the book of course). Wonderfully WF picks up on the ‘financial repression’ strategy....
‘Equities The Only Show in Town’.. Due to Unlimited Monetary Expansion
by on Oct 27, 2011 •Further to the post from a month ago.. http://www.capitalsynthesis.tech/international-equities-the-only-show-in-town/ Today was not about the European news flow. Today was simply a tiny portion of the wall of capital that is resting in cash and bonds entering the equity markets. Participants in cash are beginning to see the future and that future is all about a...
Debt vs Guarantee – The Latest ‘Off Balance Sheet’ Euro Ponzi Scheme..
by on Oct 27, 2011 •Throughout our history it is said that the most effective ponzi schemes are the ones that no one can understand. If you can present a complex ponzi scheme to an investor that is near panic with fear or greed you will be able to run your ponzi scheme. The scheme works as the goal of...
Weekly Economic Indicators (WF) -14th Oct 2011
by on Oct 15, 2011 •We continue to see no ‘off the cliff’ sort of declines in the leading economic indicators. Just as there was a disconnect earlier in the year as regards the weakening data and high equity valuations so too, on the lows of 2 weeks ago, there was a disconnect between the weak (though not disasterous) economic...
Weekly Economic Indicators (WF) – 7th Oct 2011
by on Oct 8, 2011 •We are continuing to see a softening of the data rather than falling off a cliff data coming through. Well’s reviews the various reports, provides a snap shot international perspective and a mini tribute to Steve Jobs. WF-Economic-10072011 In my mind we have the ‘natural’ cycle that demands governments and consumers pay down debt and...
Households Increasingly Allocate Capital to Bonds & Cash
by on Oct 7, 2011 •We have got the bounce in equities with all those different indexes bang at their supports as indicated. CRB etc.. I have leverage in my main investment account and ‘loaded the boat’ as said in the forum pages. (For clarity i do still have pockets of cash which i will allocate on market opportunities and...