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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Summer Risk Top Next 5-10 Sessions” – 22nd June17
by on Jun 22, 2017 •Another week rolls past and we have a pick up in price volatility here and much continued weakness and threatened breakdown for commodities. We are starting to see the 2016 to 2017 reflation trade or “escape velocity” narrative that has underpinned much of this wave 5 starting to look very weak indeed. Technically we should...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “More Near Term Weakness” 15th June17
by on Jun 15, 2017 •Hi guys, we have some near term weakness here following on the failure to meaningfully breakout across risk indexes. Commodities remain very weak here and need to be watch. We should see at least one more attempt at the reflation trade continuation so entries on commodities, at the least for a bounce should show in...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – Tactically Toppish – 9th June17
by on Jun 9, 2017 •Reports wise, we have a continuation of the Swiss team’s view that US equity risk (sp500) is tactically toppish here before a July new mkt high beckons. We have talked before about predicting tactical moves within a strong bull mkt and how problematic this can be. In this last week, many indexes have broken out...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Minor Top This Week” 31st May17
by on Jun 1, 2017 •New highs for US equity market markets once again whilst the Europe takes a breather and the strong euro holding her indexes back for now. The Pound once again coming under pressure. If these near term supports fail the pound could produce a large move very both US$ and Euro, downwards. Commodities remain weak in...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Trading Bottom In Place” 24th May17
by on May 24, 2017 •Guys, we remain firmly inside this wave five and i do hope all are enjoying the ride here. I read this week Merrill Lynch Global Research are calling this wave five likely to become a “speculative mania” across all risk assets. “The longer it takes central banks to tighten, the greater the risk of a...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Consolidation, Gold Basing” 19th May17
by on May 19, 2017 •A week of significantly increased volatility with potentially a break of a key tactical supports for US (SPX 2380) and European equity indexes. Conversely a strong breakout for the euro with Aud, gold, oil and copper seeing decent bounces. The euro potentially resuming her cyclical uptrend vs the gbp. Lets cut to the analysis from...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Watch Commodities” 10th May17
by on May 10, 2017 •Another week roles by with more pain on the commodity side and more juice on the equity side with a new breakout in several Asian indexes playing the mean reversion catch up, though a long way to run to close the gap. Unfortunately i’m on a boat in the Ocean traveling and so I post...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Bullish Above Pivot 2329” – 3rd May17
by on May 3, 2017 •A bullish note from the guys again this week for US and European equity risk markets with a focus on the cyclicals and rotation back away from defensives. Given the impressive recent breadth its all very reasonable technical comment in my opinion also. Worthy of more comment is the commodity space. Commodities bottomed well in...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 New Breakout Campaign” – 25th April17
by on Apr 26, 2017 •Risk markets have surged upward and this bull starts yet another strong continuation upwards. Some might use the word parabolic to explain this recent price action. FX remains a little complicated for the moment. Bullion has fallen due to risk on but as risk on implies reflation (tip remains elevated) the gold move technical tactical...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Sub 2378 Short Biased” 21st April17
by on Apr 21, 2017 •Another week rolls by so quickly. Global asset markets have seen more weakness over the last week with much lower levels for cyclical commodity themes and a bounce off January lows for many eg copper and a breakdown for iron ore prices in spite of a pull back for the US$ basket. Breakdown (likely false...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – Is the Reflation Over? 13th April17
by on Apr 13, 2017 •An ominous title this week from the guys which i pick up on below and in my mind is centered around Europe once again. Markets wise, another week rolls by with the guys clearly getting this equity mild retrace correct, so far. The risk on bullish bigger picture remains as was so we should be...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Tactical Top” 5th April17
by on Apr 6, 2017 •Hi guys, we have this continuation of tactical weakness in risk here as the fast moves from earlier in the year continue to be digested. There is nothing as yet in my tech book to see this as anything more than a consolidation of the prior moves. The US$ remains unresolved though more evidence is...