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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 2033/2022 As Initial Target” 4th May16
by on May 4, 2016 •Markets have moved lower and volatility has stepped up across fx and rest of world equities but alas not the US indexes as yet. US longs are not panicking as yet and so another micro bounce attempt at the recent resistance does appear likely again for US indexes. Currencies wise the US$ spiking down on...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Still A Distributive Top Building Process” 27th April16
by on Apr 27, 2016 •We have a complex multi asset technical stand off here with price not confirming either bear or bull camp either way here. And on initial price confirmation we have to also be prepared for a confirmation and then failure scenario as this is the classic formation for a momentum move. We have the Fed and...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Highs in Risk This Week Setting up Significant Correction” 19th April16 V3
by on Apr 20, 2016 •Back in Dec15 when the bear move started, it was pretty clear that the move was early and needed to be tested before this multi year bull market was truly toast. On the most recent wave of the risk rebound we needed to get to a rally point where the early bears would be throwing...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Markets Vulnerable” 5th April16
by on Apr 6, 2016 •Another week rolls by. Asset classes, sp500 and nas100 aside, are confirming the bearish macro landscape for risk assets and continuation of the cyclical bear. Without a new price breakout by key US sectors and indexes the issue remains a timing one for when the bear across all risk assets will resume. Indeed if the...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Tactically Toppish” 29th March16
by on Mar 30, 2016 •Another week quickly comes around and the major macro event, following on from the ultra easy ECB, was the soothing dovish Fed. Price has reacted positively for the bulls with the sp500 making margin new highs. World indexes not confirming the move although currency adjusted it looks better as the US$ has weakened a little....
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Take Profits Across Equities” 23rd March16
by on Mar 23, 2016 •Its too early to call the top but we are very very close to confirmation across instruments. http://www.capitalsynthesis.tech/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/es.jpg We have the sp500 losing upward momentum, weak breadth, contrarian put call, dropping volatility vixx, negative divergence on price, we have a renewed us$ bounce and a big bounce at over sold levels vs many commodity currencies...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Risk Corrective Top In Sight” 16th March16
by on Mar 16, 2016 •Risk assets continue to build to an important and profitable corrective top from their over sold bounce earlier in Q1. I’m taking gradually taking profits on risk, though not precious metals, at the higher levels of the top of this very recent distribution. Unfortunately i cant bring many meaningful technical comments of my own as...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Bounce in Risk Close to Completion” 8th March16
by on Mar 9, 2016 •Price action has been steady with no fireworks, only oil aside. Its an interesting report again this week from the guys. The correction from over sold levels across risk has occurred more powerfully and rapidly than the Swiss team expected. They have therefore shifted their timing model forward reading the recent moves as an impulsive...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Near Term Overbought But ABC Rally Sustains” – 2nd March16 v2
by on Mar 2, 2016 •So far so good on the ABC rally. A is extending and B is delayed, for now. Breadth is weakening so its a matter of time before we take a breather here. Comments on micro managing this rally from last week sustain. Gold has not shown much of retrace in spite of the US dollar...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “A of ABC Bear Mkt Rally Near Term Complete” 24th Feb16
by on Feb 25, 2016 •The market risk on rally continues though as a part of the rally the team forecasting a near term top before continuation, classic ABC. Oil appears to have bottomed as have many commodities and commodity fx. Gold appears likely near term capped for now at her recent resistance 1250 to 1270. Currencies wise, the gbp...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Risk On Tactical Buy, Gold Major Bottom” 18th FEB16 V2
by on Feb 18, 2016 •None of us have a crystal ball but we do have technical analysis which on probability is proving once again a wonderful guide to short and medium term asset market direction. Levels wise we did indeed score the lower low across most risk markets and it did appear indeed to provide a wonderful trading entry...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Basing but Re-test of Lows, Possible” 2nd Feb16
by on Feb 3, 2016 •Markets are moving quickly here so a few technical comments. The bounce has not sustained. US sector wise the prior alphas of tech and bio tech are the unsurprisingly the alphas now to the down side. Bio tech particularly has made new lows again and is now down 40% from her high point. Europe has...