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Technical Analysis – “SP500 Tactical Top Confirmed” – 28th Jan20
by on Jan 28, 2020 •Guys, i post below a quick tactical update here given the step change in volatility from the recent market movements. US Risk SP500 and Technology have both over shot and reached record overbought territory on their weekly and daily time frames. With sentiment at contrarian levels and the SP500 reaching 3350, risk markets have moved...
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The Secular Bull “Final Push” – Year Ahead Technical Analysis 12th Jan 2020 (Part1)
by on Jan 12, 2020 •Happy new year to you all, 2019 was a complicated though blisteringly high return year for most market indexes and thankfully my own book of assets. It was a very selective year though with 5 mega cap stocks in the US making much of the index gains. It was another year where the base cyclical...
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Technical Analysis – SP500 Rotating Higher, Asia EM Breaking Out 5th Nov19
by on Nov 5, 2019 •Its been a while since i updated here. The wave C in risk off that was forecast by the Swiss team just didn’t materialize. The technical setup was clear with multiple death crosses and the exploding challenges in the repo market along side many key markets weakening considerably or slipping into a technical recession inc...
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Technical Analysis – Confirmed, Risk Assets in Wave 3 Breakdown -12th August19
by on Aug 12, 2019 •I hope all are enjoying their summer breaks here. Certainly listed securities of all shapes and sizes are moving here and we see major new trends taking hold and old trends gradually breaking down. For those that have positioned correctly (and incorrectly alike) this is a wealth transformative period. Volatility and directional speed is likely...
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Technical Analysis Update – “All Eyes On Rates” 17th June19
by on Jun 17, 2019 •Its been a month since the last update but really major equity prices are barely any different. What has changed are rates at the ten year, the yield curve inversion and the price of precious metals which are at close to 5 yr highs. Lets skip to the guy’s views. Summary, the May price bottom...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Tactical Weakness” 25th March19
by on Mar 26, 2019 •Apologies for the delay in posting this. This is last week’s update but the analysis is sound and I will update in the next 48hrs with the latest print. US Risk: After the early March risk pullback, following the tactical pattern, where into option expiration you often see the market holding up its 30 to...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – SP500 Negative Divergences, SSE Volume Spike – 01 March19
by on Mar 1, 2019 •Evening guys, For those that have sold, gone short or hedged this rally its been a patient trade for the last few weeks during which many indicators have been showing impending weakness but price has kept drifting high in this bear squeeze with an absence of any contrarian sentiment top in place. US Risk: This...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Peak, US$ Strengthening” 19th Feb19
by on Feb 19, 2019 •Evening gents and apologies for missing last week’s report point. All assets markets have a positive tail wind here with dovish comments from the several of the major central banks and what appears to be the last gasps of a renewal of the “bad news is good” theme of the last decade. Lead indicators like...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Extending Corrective Bounce” 06th Feb 2019
by on Feb 6, 2019 •I will update with this week tech report more fully as of Friday but for now a brief summary of where we are as i see it. First up – The lead US equity risk mkts – The Sp500 target of 2718 has clearly come into play as this corrective bounce plays out. Momentum is...
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Annual Technical Analysis Forecast Update – “Reflation Cycle End” 26th Jan19
by on Jan 25, 2019 •Guys, I’ll update this in real time through out the weekend but here for starters is the summary of the usual annual technical forecast update, albeit in a new mifi2 compliant ie proprietary format. A small change that I make our Capitalsynthesis a closed group and enrollment is by invitation only or by reference of...
Fortnightly Technical Analysis – “World Equity Divergences At Extremes” 18th Aug18
by on Aug 18, 2018 •We are still in the Summer recess here across world markets but its noteworthy to record the observation that divergence between world equity markets and US equity markets is at an all time extreme standard deviation. This is a trade set up but seldom has the likely technical directional forecast been so clouded as now,...
Fortnightly Technical Analysis – “2700 to 2750 SP500” 18th April 2018
by on Apr 18, 2018 •Risk is bouncing strongly here and particularly so US tech and the mid cap Russel2000. The larger caps (tech aside) are under performing and world indexes are still under performing US indexes over the recent period of weakness. The selectivity is increasing here which is usually a clear indication of weakness inside a rally with...