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European Equity Recommendations/Allocations – JP, 06 Jan14
by on Jan 10, 2014 •A great report so happy to provide in isolation to others. Note over wight European markets vs ftse. JP-Euroequity-06-1-14 Rich
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“MM” EM & Asian Focus – JP, Sch – 08th Jan14
by on Jan 10, 2014 •The EM markets badly under performed for 2013 here some reports from the JP team covering the year passed and the year ahead for EM and Asian markets from a macro and then dropping down into specific tactical picks. Commercial property is a significant weighting of asset allocators. Note the rec from JP for Sun...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Rotation Bonds & Commodities into Equities, The New Mega Trend” 07Jan14
by on Jan 8, 2014 •Here below please find the latest Swiss team’s technical report. As its their first technical report for 2014 its a nice review of the year past and attempts to sign post where we have come from and we are going on their cyclical road maps. Its an exceptionally thought provoking and therefore meaningful medium and...
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“MM” Reports (Inc FI & FX) CS,JP,TD,CB – 03 Jan13
by on Jan 5, 2014 •Some of the institutions issued new reports as of Friday. Many firm’s research desks have remained closed until tomorrow or in some cases Tuesday. Here are the latest reports for the first complete week back in the new year 2014. Here the outstanding ‘mm’ report from CS to kick things off. cs-mm2-23-12-13 Here from JP...
Commodity Outlooks SC,ANZ,D,MG,JLT – 2014
by on Jan 5, 2014 •Its been a wonderful holiday season but its time again to get back down to work. As the first post for 2014 lets start with the great under performer of the last few years. Namely commodities! SC-Commodites-2014 ANZ-Commoditiesoutlook14 D-miningoutlook14 Mcguarie-agri-outlook14 LBMA-Outlook14 And here some geopolitical outlook for 2014 which, depending on what occurs, can affect...
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2014 Outlooks – “MM” Technical Analysis. ML,CS,BS,Citi,SB,HS,JL,WF
by on Dec 31, 2013 •Last post for 2013. What a wonderful year it has been for trend followers.Hedge funds have generally had a dismal year. One quote from a hedge fund manager summed up the situation nicely. “All you had to do this year was go long a major US index and go focus on your golf swing”. Yes...
JP Commodities 2014 Outlook – “Tapering is Bullish, not Bearish, for Commodity Markets”
by on Dec 31, 2013 •2013 has been a dismal year for commodity bugs and especially the gold bugs. But cyclically wise commodities usually rise toward the end of a recovery period in asset prices. They are the laggards to the move so commodity bugs it could be time to wake up to these themes again. Rising interest rates have...
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“The New Great Game” Thunder Road Dec2013
by on Dec 30, 2013 •I very pleased to bring you the latest, hugely insightful, multi market macro report, namely, the Thunder Road Report. During this festive holiday period its a perfect time for some reflection on the macro and how this feed into our macro and micro allocations for the coming year. A very timely release therefore. Thunder Road’s...
Macro Outlook “The Pain in Spain” – IMF, ML, CapSyn – Dec13
by on Dec 29, 2013 •Spain continues her economic struggle with another negative year for growth in 2013. The clear problem for Spain continues to be a lack of credit for the private sector, households and corporates alike. Year on year, since the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis loans to the private sector have fallen sharply. The Spanish...
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2014 Outlooks – CS, SC, ML..
by on Dec 29, 2013 •Macro wise, very high correlation in allocations and perspectives across the majors which represents a high risk to asset markets. If we do hit unexpected problems, volatility could spike up in 2014 due to this herding phenomena, be warned. There is little or no downside risks priced into this market on a macro level. CS-GlobalEquity-2014...
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“Deleveraging? CapSyn Outlook & “MM” Weekly Reports – 21st Dec13
by on Dec 29, 2013 •Here below some final 2013 weekly reports from the majors sticking to the themes we have seen before. Inevitably they are forward looking into 2014. Its clear on a macro market level (ie on major themes) the institutional teams are uniformly sticking to the over weight equities and under weight bonds but long junk. Under...
Xmas Weekly Technical Update – “Santa’s Rally Sustains” 24th Dec13
by on Dec 24, 2013 •A very brief Christmas technical update as the US markets soar to new all time record highs capping a wonderful year for speculators and investors alike. 2013 has conformed perfectly to second half of December strong positive seasonal period. Some call it ‘window dressing’ and some call it Santa’s Rally. For whatever reason we have...