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Technical Analysis – “SP500 Tactical Top Confirmed” – 28th Jan20
by on Jan 28, 2020 •Guys, i post below a quick tactical update here given the step change in volatility from the recent market movements. US Risk SP500 and Technology have both over shot and reached record overbought territory on their weekly and daily time frames. With sentiment at contrarian levels and the SP500 reaching 3350, risk markets have moved...
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The Secular Bull “Final Push” – Year Ahead Technical Analysis 12th Jan 2020 (Part1)
by on Jan 12, 2020 •Happy new year to you all, 2019 was a complicated though blisteringly high return year for most market indexes and thankfully my own book of assets. It was a very selective year though with 5 mega cap stocks in the US making much of the index gains. It was another year where the base cyclical...
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Technical Analysis – SP500 Rotating Higher, Asia EM Breaking Out 5th Nov19
by on Nov 5, 2019 •Its been a while since i updated here. The wave C in risk off that was forecast by the Swiss team just didn’t materialize. The technical setup was clear with multiple death crosses and the exploding challenges in the repo market along side many key markets weakening considerably or slipping into a technical recession inc...
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Technical Analysis – Confirmed, Risk Assets in Wave 3 Breakdown -12th August19
by on Aug 12, 2019 •I hope all are enjoying their summer breaks here. Certainly listed securities of all shapes and sizes are moving here and we see major new trends taking hold and old trends gradually breaking down. For those that have positioned correctly (and incorrectly alike) this is a wealth transformative period. Volatility and directional speed is likely...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Tactical Weakness” 25th March19
by on Mar 26, 2019 •Apologies for the delay in posting this. This is last week’s update but the analysis is sound and I will update in the next 48hrs with the latest print. US Risk: After the early March risk pullback, following the tactical pattern, where into option expiration you often see the market holding up its 30 to...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 End March Near Term Weakness” 13th March19
by on Mar 13, 2019 •Good evening gents, It gives me great pleasure to bring you the latest update which to recap is an amalgamation of the traditional reports we used to run in their raw format re-rewitten by yours truly to comply with mifi2 regs. Ideas are not copy write, yet. Lets start with US Risk: The rebound in...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Peak, US$ Strengthening” 19th Feb19
by on Feb 19, 2019 •Evening gents and apologies for missing last week’s report point. All assets markets have a positive tail wind here with dovish comments from the several of the major central banks and what appears to be the last gasps of a renewal of the “bad news is good” theme of the last decade. Lead indicators like...
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Annual Technical Analysis Forecast Update – “Reflation Cycle End” 26th Jan19
by on Jan 25, 2019 •Guys, I’ll update this in real time through out the weekend but here for starters is the summary of the usual annual technical forecast update, albeit in a new mifi2 compliant ie proprietary format. A small change that I make our Capitalsynthesis a closed group and enrollment is by invitation only or by reference of...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 & FI Tactical Bounce, Europe Global -Beta” 2nd April18 V2
by on Apr 2, 2018 •Happy Easter guys, 2018 has indeed played out according to the expectation of higher volatility against a back drop of a trend change price distribution and ending of this 8 year bull market for US risk. As we look across US cyclical risk from the sp500 to the Russel2000 to the nas100 its all still...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Risk Positive into Deeper March” 5th March 2018 V2
by on Mar 5, 2018 •We have a continuation of volatility across risk here albeit providing a fairly constructive long set up for US risk and even most international risk cyclical markets. To try and summarize the recent price moves using the sp500 as lead here: The US Sp500 scored a new price high in January on excellent breadth, albeit...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Feb SP500 Pull Back” – 4th Feb18
by on Feb 5, 2018 •Another week rolls by and we finally have some market volatility and a negative week of price action. Its broad based across all risk markets, globally. For technicians it was an interesting (tactical) price top set up with a narrow upward channel for most US$ risk through out Jan18. Breadth has been excellent and across...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – 2018 OUTLOOK 22nd Jan18
by on Jan 22, 2018 •A happy Monday to all and I do hope you are enjoying this bullish extension of this wave five impressive bull market in risk assets. Its been a water shed week with the final breakdown of the 38 year secular bull market for world interest rates. (Where US rates go world rates follow pretty quickly)....