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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Risk Remains Vulnerable” 8th Feb17
by on Feb 8, 2017 •Hi Guys, We have the usual tech run through below. Notably the Swiss team have brought forward their US$ top this week. Several pairs have signaled that the US$ cyclical bull appears to have topped or very close to topping as a basket. Risk remains within a distribution at present and its clear that technical...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Corrective Pull Back” 2nd Feb17
by on Feb 2, 2017 •We have indeed had a false breakout in some risk sectors and indexes but the reversal was hard and fast a pretty good signal of the false break. The US$ is indeed becoming more selective with one of the leads for the selectivity being the usdsgd. (Commented on by Fitzpatrick last week). Alongside rising inflation...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “US$ Near Low” 25th Jan17
by on Jan 25, 2017 •I am traveling once again but very aware that participants are waiting this report and markets have momentum and are moving fast. So without delay i’m post this report up and will update in flight lounges as I can with Fitzpatrick et al and comments etc. Just very quickly, this is a wave 5 bull...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 2234 Key Support” – 18th Jan17
by on Jan 18, 2017 •Welcome back and to the first weekly technical analysis post of 2017. What a phenomenal run up we have had since early November16 across most risk assets, even including the eurostoxx50 eventually. The negative beta turned out to be Asia over the period in spite of initial promising signs. The ftse100 carrying the local currency...
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Annual Technical Analysis Outlook – “Wave 5 Boom & Bust” – Jan 2017
by on Jan 6, 2017 •It gives me great pleasure to start 2017 with the usual award winning Annual Technical Outlook report from the guys. Of course none of of have a crystal ball but of all the thousands of reports I have read over the last few decades, including many very expensive mkt “expert” reports, I can say this...
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Christmas Technical Analysis – “Grade B” 24th Dec17
by on Dec 24, 2016 •So another year is nearly over and what a year it has been for both markets and the geopolitical landscape. Numbers wise, on the surface a year of the US$ and US equities, once again. As always we must look hard at the numbers and view them across currencies to see their relative performance. Here...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Distribution Ahead” – 7th Dec16
by on Dec 8, 2016 •Another strong week rolls by. We have strong seasonal winds here blowing us towards a positive end of year for risk, us$ risk included. But in the coming 3 weeks US$ risk may have lost its alpha crown with international risk, currency adjusted likely to be provide the out performance due to mean reversion catch...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – US Cyclicals Overbought & Sentiment Spikes 29th Nov16
by on Dec 1, 2016 •Firstly, apologies for the delay in posting this weeks report. I have been traveling and it proved impossible to post. We have extremes of over bought conditions for US equities, the US$ and interestingly, given the historic inverse correlation, many commodity themes also. Conversely we have bonds, precious metals and many defensive equities at deeply...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Overbought, Gold Basing” 23rd Nov16
by on Nov 24, 2016 •Another excellent week if you are involved in the long usd risk assets funded by borrowing other currencies. The Russell2000, Financials and Transports have provided the beta and in measured in the world currencies like jpy or euros or sgds they are up 15% in just a few weeks. Its a near vertical move and...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Buy Dips in Cyclicals” 16th Nov17
by on Nov 17, 2016 •The market continues to provide very strong bullish signals here. We have excellent breath in terms of number of stocks hitting new 52 week highs. The rotation to cyclical stocks supports the general reflationary theme with commodity related themes the alpha performers. The dollar continues upward across a range of currencies. Due to the Trump...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Risk Base Forming, Buy Weakness” 9th Nov16
by on Nov 9, 2016 •Its been a very significant week for risk markets. We have seen the complete reversal of the cyclical weakness themes vs defensive strength. Transports and Financials and other cyclical themes have moved from the negative beta to the positive beta. The evidence is compelling across asset classes. It is all due to fast rising inflationary...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Cash Testing 2120”
by on Nov 2, 2016 •After last week’s holiday from providing a release this week we have a bumper catch up release. We have major movements across risk asset markets. Equity indexes have a tactical correction in play with yesterday the Sp500 even breaking her 2120 level. But looking in more detail we can see the evidence of a sustained...