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Global Macro Monthly & Weekly Economic Reviews & Forecasts – WF,CS,BarCap,Scan
by on Nov 18, 2013 •There is a lot of reading. Its for those with a bias to the fundamental data. The data remains soft or weak recovery, at best. And as WF perfectly asks, “Five Years, Three QEs and $3.5 Trillion Later, Where’s the Inflation?” And consider this. In previous nominal bull markets usually occur alongside some rise inflation...
WF Wkly & Monthly Eonomic Roundups – “Weak Improvement Continues” – 01st Nov13
by on Nov 3, 2013 •Here a round up of the latest WF reports. We start with the usual weekly roundup. WF-WeeklyEconomicFinancialCommentary_01-11-13 This week’s view of the ISM manufacturing data. WF-ISM Manufacturing-01-11-13 And here the latest housing monthly report. WF-UShousingmonthly-01-11-13 Here an outstanding report from the team which needs some digestion and comment! WF-USManufacturing&Credt-01-11-13 And here finally another good report...
WF – Fundamental Review – PPI, ConConf, CPI & IP – 29th Oct13 – “Could We Be Wrong?”
by on Oct 30, 2013 •Ahead of the announcement by the FED. There is a lot of market comment from industry gurus e.g. the comments from Blackrock’s CEO and PIMCO’s CEO advocating an immediate FED taper. Here below I strongly suggest there will be no Fed taper forthcoming as the data is in fact moving in other direction. We have...
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BarCap-Global Instruments Technicals & Oil Supply Issues – 28th Oct13
by on Oct 30, 2013 •Here a nice traditional price technical round up by the tech team at BarCap. Barcap-wklyglobaltech-28-10-13 To counter the above tech bearish view on WTI, post the likely near term bounce, here a Barcap, more bullish, fundamental perspective re the troubles in supply from Libya and Iraq, released yesterday. barcap-oil-fundamentals-28-10-13 Last week, sector wise the European...
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Weekly Macro,Commodity & Econ Focus inc Japan & UK (CS, Epstein, WF, JP, etc)
by on Oct 6, 2013 •As a general comment, the main US equity market indexes appear to be in a giant distribution since May. Higher highs have been achieved but at the cost of weaker and weaker technicals. Its not a hugely positive market in spite of higher prices being achieved. Europe has more momentum and price support for the...
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Weekly FX Technical Analysis, Macro Comments & Bullion Technicals
by on Aug 23, 2013 •There is one story dominating everything at present namely: To taper or not to taper? I’m very tempted to think this is a premature question as the FED is currently monetizing 85bn of securities a month and simply a taper of 25bn or less aimed at the short end of the yield curve could be...
In Focus: The UK
by on Aug 11, 2013 •Headlines wise its been a strong quarter for the UK and an out performance in terms of economic surprises. The UK is suddenly leading the pack with a rapid expansion in domestic growth. The latest data releases last week inc services growth which expanded at the fastest pace in over 6 years.Manufacturing growth last week...
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Info Dump – Bullion Weekly Tech Report, WF Monthly Macro, Inverse Correlation JPY Nik225 at extremes.
by on Mar 15, 2013 •A quick info dump here for all. Here below the latest bullion tech. Having been asleep the bullion’s volatility is creeping up again as are her HUI miners. This makes me wake up again on the asset class. BullionWeeklyTechnicals12032013 Here the below the latest WF monthly macro economic run through. Global macro remains very weak....
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2013 Technical Forecast, Cycles, Correlations, Inter Market Analysis & Comment..
by on Jan 8, 2013 •The Swiss team have done themselves proud once again. Words fail me. A superb analysis. Lets see if they can win the European technical team for 2013 as they did in 2012. To the report specifically. There is much to digest here. What I continue to admire about their approach is that it’s probability driven....
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Seymour’s Equity Research – “Inflationary Deflation” Report
by on Dec 17, 2012 •Seymour Equity have produced an outstanding report here. The attached document cuts to the core of the macro and cyclical issues facing the various asset classes. Its makes extensive use of the Kondratieff long wave theories and explains these for us. This is useful for those new to these theories. (Its worthy of note that Dr...
WF Securities 2013 Fundamental Economic Forecast – “The New Normal”
by on Dec 14, 2012 •Wells provide us the first 2013 fundamental projection report. Many more will follow of course and I’ll try and post up as many of these as I can to see what themes emerge. The Wells report is a US centric report, to my mind. I pick this single chart out from the report. This is...
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Weekly Technical Comments – “Buy The Dips on Cyclical Themes”
by on Oct 30, 2012 •Another strong (and bullish) report from the Swiss team. I’ll leave the detail to you. Report below. Regarding my own book, I expected the cyclical stocks to be in the front line of the recent correction but this is not what has occurred. Cyclical themes usually provide a beta to the overall market both up...