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Weekly Roundup – “ECB’s ‘Unlimited Action Changes the Risk Reward Dynamics”
by on Sep 7, 2012 •Ive been following SC’s (high net worth private client) wealth management weekly report for a while. To my mind its been accurate and timely in its recommendations and insights. It nicely brings together the key fundamental and technical strands of world asset markets, monetary and fiscal policy all in one weekly report. The ECB’s unlimited...
Market Musings – Inflection Point For Risk On/Risk Off
by on Jun 5, 2012 •Ahead of the Swiss team’s technical briefing some of my own thoughts here.. We are in a very difficult area of the trading chart here. Technically we remain massively oversold but with the bounces being very poorly supported long attempts have been beaten back and you are lucky to score positively on playing the “bounce”. ...
UK – Putting it All Together..
by on Mar 20, 2012 •The UK and US present us with the model for how developed nation’s economic recoveries will play out. Their recoveries are built on the basis of more consumer and government debt funded by increases in taxes and debt monetizations artificially surpressing interest rates to stimulate more consumption and reductions in savings. Wages lag inflation so...
No Comment – Chart of the Week
by on Mar 16, 2012 •Commodities / Companies / Economics / Emerging Markets / Fixed Income / Fundamental Indicators / Indexes / Markets / PMs / Property
Land of the Rising Sun..
by on Feb 18, 2012 •Japan is complex story. From the eyes of a western investor a surreal world where valuations seem entirely out of step with western metrics. Imagine a world where the yield you recieve for lending your capital to your government (A very indebted government with 200% debt to gdp) is less than 0.95% per annum for...
No Comment – Chart of the Week..
by on Jan 27, 2012 •Commodities / Companies / Economics / Entries/Exists / Fixed Income / Fundamental Indicators / FX / Indexes / Markets / PMs / Property / Technical trading
Weekly Technical View & Macro Comments, ‘Near Term Overbought’..
by on Jan 24, 2012 •The Swiss team have changed their stance a little. The recent strength providing evidence that the pull back, when it comes, will be shallow and not severe. From their technical perspective, they judge, this move will likely therefore run to the end of March or early April and score a higher high across the broad...
A Quick Refresher.. Jobs, Population, USD Reserves & Inflationary Expropriations
by on Jan 12, 2012 •The US population expands yoy by approximately 1.5% (producing a doubling time of about 45 years). The rate of change here has not diminished. Every new entrant needs an auto loan, housing loan, student loan etc. In a world of exponential curves the curve of population growth and debt creation look likely to continue, for...
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2012 Forecasts..
by on Jan 9, 2012 •As attached from MS.. I have to say up front that disagree with the basic premise that stimulus is coming to an end. We have negative interest rates and imo these will widen as inflation rises. Direct QE may not be needed should credit growth expand as the fed, boe, ecb desire but on any...
Households Increasingly Allocate Capital to Bonds & Cash
by on Oct 7, 2011 •We have got the bounce in equities with all those different indexes bang at their supports as indicated. CRB etc.. I have leverage in my main investment account and ‘loaded the boat’ as said in the forum pages. (For clarity i do still have pockets of cash which i will allocate on market opportunities and...
‘Tax The Rich’ Is the Developed World’s New Mantra
by on Oct 6, 2011 •http://www.businessinsider.com/italy-announces-higher-taxes-2011-9 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/sep/16/spain-raises-tax-on-rich http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-proposes-new-taxes-on-wealthy-for-half-of-debt-plan/2011/09/19/gIQATnkNfK_story.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/jul/27/property-tax-ireland-poll-tax http://business.financialpost.com/2011/08/24/france-cuts-growth-forecasts-raises-taxes-on-rich/ Name a DM country and you will see initiatives to tax the ‘rich’. Democracies merely rely on the majority verdict. If the majority want to expropriate everything from one or other group they can and often vote it through especially if media services pump the political spin. I flagged this...
International Equities.. ‘The Only Show in Town’
by on Oct 1, 2011 •1) Corporate debt cheap and getting cheaper. The yield curve is flattening. Healthy corporate debt yields will likely fall alongside Treasury and MBS yields. 2) Corporate earnings to all other asset classes at extreme positive multiples. To cash or near cash companies yields are on multiples of 10 to 15. ie pes of 4 not...