Macro Outlook “The Pain in Spain” – IMF, ML, CapSyn – Dec13
by on Dec 29, 2013 •Spain continues her economic struggle with another negative year for growth in 2013. The clear problem for Spain continues to be a lack of credit for the private sector, households and corporates alike. Year on year, since the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis loans to the private sector have fallen sharply. The Spanish...
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CS Global Macro Charts, FX Strat & Tech 14th Nov13
by on Nov 14, 2013 •Here a run through from CS of the global asset markets. Here last weeks global macro chart pack from them which is a useful quick ref report i find: CS-MacroChartswkly-07-11-13 Here this week’s latest report on the same format: CS-MacroChartswkly-13-11-13 And here the usual CS weekly FX tech report, below. A good global view this...
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CommerzB – Macro Strat, FX & Bullion Analysis – 07th Nov13
by on Nov 8, 2013 •Here below a trio of CommerzB reports. Two FX (em and commodity) orientated technical analysis trades and levels. Commerz-CommodityFXwkly-06-11-13 Commerz-Asiafx-07-11-13 Also a good report on their macro positions. Commerz-MacroStrat-06-11-13 And here the usual good technical analysis from the team re the bullion markets. CB-BullionWeeklyTech-05112013 Rich
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CS Wealth – Monthly Global Strategy – November13
by on Oct 30, 2013 •Good report here from CS Wealth. No surprise to hear some participants calling the bottom in 2009 the start of a new secular bull market for equities! When more participants start making this call it will certainly be a good contrarian indicator. Its a consensus view with calls for more compression on high yield, out...
WF – Fundamental Review – PPI, ConConf, CPI & IP – 29th Oct13 – “Could We Be Wrong?”
by on Oct 30, 2013 •Ahead of the announcement by the FED. There is a lot of market comment from industry gurus e.g. the comments from Blackrock’s CEO and PIMCO’s CEO advocating an immediate FED taper. Here below I strongly suggest there will be no Fed taper forthcoming as the data is in fact moving in other direction. We have...
NomuraB – EURGBP EURUSD Technical Price Charts 28th Oct13
by on Oct 29, 2013 •Just a quick update eurgbp. I have to, unfortunately, agree with them that the euro is likely making a move toward the channel resistance at circa 0.87 vs the gbp. The battle for the technical continuation of the cyclical bear vs the gbp has been running for what seems like the last 6 months. Checking...
A Historic Reminder – Wehrmacht Inflation
by on Oct 24, 2013 •The post 2008 credit crisis has provided a golden 5 year period for asset holders. Fiscal deficits and central banks liquidity injections have expanded money supply without enabling inflation as money velocity has collapsed and the banking sector have retained excess reserves on their balance sheets. Many stocks have risen 300 to 500% in the...
Focus UK – A Cyclical or Structural Boom? (CS & WF) “UK Housing Flat, not Bubbly” Oct13
by on Oct 7, 2013 •(The following report is available as a downloadable PDF here: UK-Oct07-13 ) This past weekend, US and Swiss investment teams have made the case that the UK’s current mono line cyclical boom could be a structural revival. In recent years I have advocated investing for the UK’s cyclical boombut I have always maintained there...
In Focus: The UK
by on Aug 11, 2013 •Headlines wise its been a strong quarter for the UK and an out performance in terms of economic surprises. The UK is suddenly leading the pack with a rapid expansion in domestic growth. The latest data releases last week inc services growth which expanded at the fastest pace in over 6 years.Manufacturing growth last week...
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Weekly Technical Comments & More.. “Equity Market Distribution into a Top” & “Bullion Secular Bull Intact”
by on Apr 16, 2013 •Ok, attached below the latest view from the Swiss tech team. Another great report and nothing in the last week has invalidated their view on the major asset markets which ties in to my own views as documented on the forum boards. US index Sp500 false breakout. Rus2000 failure and looking very weak. Sub sector...
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Weekly Technical Comments – “US Indexes Q1 Top Forming. HGX, EMs, Nik225 Topped Out, Sell Bounces”
by on Mar 19, 2013 •Another solid report from the team in Switzerland covering the major sectors and indicators and price patterns once again. Amongst the items a wave five top for end q1 looks increasingly likely but its possible that a new higher high can be formed as the distribution is not providing a classic signal yet. This is...
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From The Forum Boards – “Weekly Highlight Content Blitz”
by on Feb 2, 2013 •Another busy week of analysis, trades, comment and images.An interesting week on various fronts. Here below some of the highlights of the last week from the forum pages. Major themes this week were: International equities making 5 year highs. Euro strength vs her major developed world pairs. Inc GBP, USD, JPY. Increased volatility in the...