The joys of spanish internet have delayed the markets summary today.. apologies, beyond my control i’m afraid..
Asia calm over night again and shanghi looking almost healthy.. the big trend remains as was of course..
Technical view at:http://www.stocktiming.com/Shanghai_Daily_Stock_Market_Updates/shanghai-index-update-thursday.htm
DM markets threatened that breakdown yesterday but as said it was all way too calm.. these markets want to go higher, at least for the moment.. that is the path of least resistance.. news events can, of course, spoil this directionally.. I have no crystal ball but the probability, for the moment remains higher not lower, imo.SP500 needs to break the weak near term down trend.. (choppy)..
YM ditto.. from 12450 onwards..
Oil has surged up again. Very choppy.. the UCO entry was good directionally simply extreme volatility knocking it out. Nothing correlated even as she went to extremes.. Almost all indexes rising nicely here.. Nasdaq out performing due to google in great part whose earnings are surging with very impressive cash flow generation. Citi results giving a nice bump to the finance sector which is very positive for the indexes over all as this sector has badly lagged of late. If finance gets a leg up new market highs become very likely indeed. Technically on the price action things are looking up.. Soybeans and Wheat good today with Sugar threatening all time highs.. Corn having moved since the USDA ‘bluff’ looks to be taken a breather today..
Against all of this bullish view is the dx (dollar index).. she is making a poor fist of it but there is some semblance of relative strength emerging, albeit very early days..
AUD struggling a little in the last few days, even vs the disasterous gbp.. the retail data from auz wasn’t liked and neither was the low loan growth. Personally i like the look of both.. Auz is walking a fine line between booming and a housing collapse.. With unemployment so low at 4.9%, savings rates surging and investment booming some lower retail and debt growth nos are a good thing, imo.. A nice soft landing for the Auz housing market is way preferable to another bubble. The BOA rate rise projections moved to november which is fine.. rates at 4.75% makes them positive rates and one of the highest in the g10. I’m encouraged by the Auz approach not discouraged.. Of course asset markets like consumer booms and bubble markets.. Australia is not playing this game at present hence participants sell assets a little desiring bubbles in stead. The BOA is doing pretty well imo.
Next market event is obama and the debt ceiling issues.. Like most market participants i can’t believe they won’t sort this out at the last minute in the usual political way.. simply the various palms need greasing, ie all the various lobby groups want a slice of the action etc.. When all the various groups make a deal the money will flow again and the debts will continue on up to feed the ever growing Washington army.
I noticed last week Washington house prices are rising in price, indeed ahead of almost every region of the states. This tells us a great deal of where money is. There is no short term limit to the size of the US government so long as monetary policy is unlimited and in government hands. Its really very straight forward this principle that so many still fail to grasp. If this were a financial instrument we would long ago called it the biggest bubble ever and a totally an unsustainable parabolic chart. One day it will explode with dire consequences for the US.Onwards down that road that Hayek referred to so eloquently. Rich
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