The Inflationary Inflection Point Approaches
by on May 18, 2012 •As markets tumble we have to ask the same question we have asked ourselves so many times before. Is the economy, once again, heading into a deflationary de-leveraging spiral? The 10yr T-bond rates would answer this question with a resounding answer – yes! Lipper fund flow data has continued to roll in month after month...
Weekly Technical Comments – “Short-Term Oversold Bounce” Before Selling Resumes
by on May 15, 2012 •The Swiss team pointing to the AAII survey and the over sold indicators. (They dont pick up on the drop on bearish advisor sentiment as does Weinstien, Ive covered this on the forum). They are calling for a near term bounce in the next few sessions. The medium term technial weakness remains however so they...
Weekly Technical Comments – “Sell Any Bounces”.
by on May 8, 2012 •The Swiss team (and many gurus inc Weinstien) getting uber bearish here and now. The cyclical bull is hanging on to a very thin thread now. They believe tech has already scored a cyclical top with a major correction in tech to come. Apple remains above 555 but watch this level. Weekly08-05 All the best...
Weekly Technical Comments – ‘Trading Bottom in Place’
by on May 1, 2012 •The Swiss team remain near term bullish but not change on the post rally bear. Away in London at present so I’ll save more meaningful comments when back at the desk. All the best Rich Weekly30-04
Weekly Technical Comment – Near Term Bounce in Equities and Commodities (Updated with brief macro update).
by on Apr 24, 2012 •The Swiss team sticking to their medium term call of another wave down but near term they are calling for a multi week rally here this week. They like risk assets ie the CRB as well AUDUSD and believe a new high is to come for some EM indexes. Medium term they stick to their...
Weekly Technical Comments – “Below S&P 1388 invites a move to 1340”
by on Apr 17, 2012 •The Swiss team assert that the bear is likely to push this lower and that a continuation to 1340 is the path of least resistance. They sight 1388 as a key level s&p500. Take note that on today’s sharp spike up we are back over 1388 as i type. If we do push on here...
Chart(s) of the Week (No Comment)
by on Apr 14, 2012 •And a few more.. (On the latest, end of March Case Shiller US house prices adjusted for inflation using the official inflation nos, we are back to the year 2000 house prices. This chart shows the end of Feb index readings, official inflation adjusted).
Weekly International Economic Indicators Commentary (Care of WF).
by on Apr 13, 2012 •A wide ranging and therefore good report from WF today from their weekly international economic commentary. I therefore post it up for weekend reading. The quick summary, the data appears to be softening from Bejing to New York to London. I’m starting to get that all too familiar feeling of “deja vu” here and now....
The Case for Global Equities – GS Report
by on Apr 12, 2012 •I’ve been making the case for global equities since the 2008/9 financial crisis. Developed world equities have come a long way, more than doubling, since the 2009 lows but does this make them expensive here? Not in my and many other’s opinion (inc GS’s as below). The same recent positive gains cannot be said for...
Weekly Technical Comments – “The Near term Correction has Arrived”
by on Apr 10, 2012 •The swiss team reconfirming their near term correction call and providing targets etc.. All the best Rich Weekly10-04
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Weekly Technical Comments.. Break of S&P500 1386 Bearish..
by on Apr 4, 2012 •The Swiss team unsurprisingly maintain their bearish short and medium term views. They expect a pro commodity pro risk rally in the aud and some commodities short term but sight this as only an opportunity to sell. The Eurostoxx50 looks very weak as well as the Shanghai and Audusd and many commodities. Here the report....