The Deflationary Gorilla Vs The World’s Inflationary Central Banks cont..
by on Dec 28, 2011 •The battle continues. In spite of all the inflationary juice the world’s central banks are pouring into asset markets the world wide the debt deleveraging 1000 pound gorilla is back in town and has started to hit asset markets into touch here. Only a massive increase beyond the existing massive increases in central bank balancesheets...
Santa Rally – End of Year ‘Window Dressing’ or more..?
by on Dec 22, 2011 •Many bullish trending charts broke in the run up to xmas. But we have not experienced any dramatic falls that price watchers may have expected. Seasonals have done their magic trick of supporting prices and stabalized things. Of course central bankers and some slightly better economic data from the US has assisted. The DOW cash...
Portfolio Allocations & Markets.. The Multi Asset BEAR is Very Close Now..
by on Dec 14, 2011 •Ok, so where are we? In my opinion, the old trader’s line of ‘buy the rumour sell the news’ has been spot on. Seasonals have a part but they don’t drive the market. We are, therefore, in the process of the entire ‘risk on’ trend breaking. As a general technical and fundamental comment, rather than...
Euro – FX (Inc news update – ECB Cuts Bank Reserve Ratios to 1% But Reminds The Beaurocrats that ‘debt monetization impossible’)
by on Dec 8, 2011 •As we can see the technical picture is very weak. It looks as the though the technical breakout has failed, the uptrend defeated. We moved to oversold levels in reaction. We have recently had a sideways move to reset the technical oversold conditions. We are at a level whereby technicall selling could/should resume. The entire...
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“Buy the Rumour Sell the News”
by on Dec 7, 2011 •We have had rumour on top of rumour. Central banks took action to liquify the system through their collateralized swap loans, equity markets were over sold and we recorded one of the best weeks for asset prices in years. Markets have risen nicely to resistances and tomorrow the euro meetings start. The good news is...
Central Bank of Zimbabwe Governor “Worried About the US Dollar”
by on Dec 7, 2011 •This is a wonderful story that i had to post up. Gideon Gono, the infamous Governor of the Central Bank of Zimbabwe, is worried about the US dollar it seems. From 2010 he has pegged his country’s currency to the dollar. He is interpretting recent events re the continued printing of money and debt monetizations...
Weekly Technical Update.. (Inc Janjuah Interview)
by on Dec 6, 2011 •Short term at over bought levels (and price resistances). UBS expects another few percentage points on the basis of the xmas rally before the cyclical bear resumes. In spite of the mildly bullish call UBS declares selling into strength the better move at this point – which, in my opinion, is the correct move due...
“Buy The Rumour Sell the News”
by on Dec 5, 2011 •Following the central bank’s actions last Tuesday its been right to wait and see how prices of the different asset classes have reacted to the intervensions before commenting and taking too many actions. On the news last week, it was correct to add risk via reducing the hedging shorts and adding a few euros. The...
Central Banks Swaps Lines Attempt to Re-set Pro Risk Rally
by on Nov 30, 2011 •I dont have time now to comment fully now but the latest central bank action represents massive intervension in the fx markets. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-29/stock-futures-in-u-s-decline-after-bank-ratings-cut-by-standard-poor-s.html In summary its clear signal to market participants that no cash is safe. That central banks will be willing to accept overseas soverign debt junk (ie euro debt) as acceptable collateral for...
Weekly Technical Comments – Xmas Rally in Place (Subject to 1158 sp500 holding)..
by on Nov 29, 2011 •Here attached the UBS pair’s weekly technical comments.. They are maintaining their bullish stance re equities and pro risk assets generally. They don’t mention the eurusd specifically but state they are bearish on the dx and so we have to assume they are bullish on the euro as the dx is mainly the eurusd pair....
Chart Blitz
by on Nov 25, 2011 •So ends another week in the capital markets. Last week the technicals confirmed the macro fundamentals so that this weeks move was pretty inevitable. Everything fell into place in last week inc the inverse correlation of equity markets to the dx weakening. Although the macro picture seems to be worsening every day that passes (as...