Summary Its a Bacon Slicer – ‘We Are All Doomed But Some Less Than Others’
by on Nov 24, 2011 •Where to start.. Firstly, apologies for not posting sooner. I will post some technical charts up after this brief comment. France, Germany and Italy made a joint statement out of Frankfurt today that the ECB will remain independent and that there would be no undue pressure from sovereign states to enforce the ECB to monetize...
Market Chart Blitz
by on Nov 18, 2011 •Given where we are, lets rush through some charts.. Here the super important Eurusd.. this pair is the major construct for the DX (dollar basket) and seems to define the entire direction of the market (most of the time). The risk on off correlation to eurusd is weakening a little but is still alive for...
Euro Farse – Update..
by on Nov 17, 2011 •As previously noted here, the ‘final solution’ re Europe’s debt deleveraging must come from either the ECB and or IMF. It should come as no surprise then that Euro officials are working along side the IMF to work around the ECB non monetization of debt legal constraints. Last night the IMF Head of European matters...
Commodities / Economics / Emerging Markets / Fixed Income / Fundamental Indicators / FX / Indexes / PMs
Monetary History – The Day After the 1976 Peso Devaluation…
by on Nov 16, 2011 •A personal story extracted from swissmetalassets.com link provided below. In 1976 Mexico devalued her peso vs the US$ by 50% “Everyone in the country was in shock. People’s net worth had devalued more than 53% overnight. The value in savings accounts dropped in half and neither merchants nor consumers knew how to react because they...
Why A Tax Haven Now?
by on Nov 15, 2011 •From the 1970s until 2008, consumer debt has increased, almost unabated, year on year across the developed world. The UK, as just one developed world example, has seen consumer debt increase from 43% of GDP in 1973 to over a 100% of GDP in 2012. In the UK’s case, much of this consumer debt was...
Weekly Technical View..
by on Nov 15, 2011 •The UBS team continue to expect a late Nov high beta rally. They site the 1.348 eurusd level as important too hold to sustain the risk on rally and sp500 1226. Lets see.. Weekly15-11 For my mind market watch here providing a rare ‘perfect’ summary of where we are.. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bulls-need-to-punch-through-resistance-2011-11-14?link=mw_home_kiosk Rich p.s. With the pre...
Stocks to Outperform Cash by, at least, 460%. Dow Target 61846
by on Nov 14, 2011 •We cannot know how effective the debt monetization will be and therefore the degree of inflation and financial repression that will be called for. We can be 99% certain that the money printers will do all they can to implement the financial repression model as far as the eye can see in an attempt to...
The Sovereign Debt Default Process.. Dc.Marc Faber
by on Nov 11, 2011 •As discussed previously, we are getting ever closer to massive debt monetization by central banks and or the IMF due to the ever worsening fiscal position of ‘developed world’ sovereign entities. It seems to me a reminder for us all on the history and theory from specialists in the area would be useful here and...
David Einhorn’s Q3 Letter to Shareholders
by on Nov 10, 2011 •Apologies a few days late with this one but here below the brilliant Daid Einhorn’s Q3 letter to shareholders. Ill run through his latest entries in the next few days and update this post. He has made some exceptionally good calls in the last few months inc Vod, Green Mountain etc. I see he has...
Weekly Technical View.. Equities Vunerable
by on Nov 9, 2011 •The UBS boys maintaining a generally bullish stance towards equities up to end q1 2012. Near term, equities over bought and due a pull back which could last to end of Nov. SP500 above 1883 is a buy.. Below this would set off some alarm bells. They are also bearish oil from 100 usds. They...
Markets..
by on Nov 8, 2011 •Everything running surprisingly smoothly at present.. long may it last. We know the consensus was very negative on the recent lows. We also know fund redemptions have been severe and that companies are sitting on cash heavy balance sheets. These positive factors seem to be holding up and the market and the momentum is to...
Weekly Fundamental Indicators..
by on Nov 5, 2011 •WF weekly review.. The data is ok. Things are very weak. So weak that the data on jobs is barely positive. The manufacturing ISM reading was 0.8 over zero growth. Ie sub 50 would infer a contraction of economic activity.. The ISM has come down to 50.8. Is this good news.. not really.. Although it...