A European Farce.. Inc Update2
by on Oct 18, 2011 •We had a decent bounce in equities across the world in the last few weeks. We have a mild retrace at present which is needed to allow the indexes to push onward again soon. Pick your levels as entries to join the rally but keep stops fairly close given the issues we see all around...
Weekly Economic Indicators (WF) -14th Oct 2011
by on Oct 15, 2011 •We continue to see no ‘off the cliff’ sort of declines in the leading economic indicators. Just as there was a disconnect earlier in the year as regards the weakening data and high equity valuations so too, on the lows of 2 weeks ago, there was a disconnect between the weak (though not disasterous) economic...
UBS Weekly Technical Update – ‘Multi Month Rally Within A Cyclical Bear – Buy Pull Backs’ 11th Oct
by on Oct 13, 2011 •Apologies for the delay in posting up.. Ive been traveling between beach, mountain & city. Below the UBS technical view. Its a complex report this and contains many gems. The summary is sp500 above 1074 or so (on a closing basis) signifies the low is in for this wave of the cyclical bear. They suggest...
Weekly Economic Indicators (WF) – 7th Oct 2011
by on Oct 8, 2011 •We are continuing to see a softening of the data rather than falling off a cliff data coming through. Well’s reviews the various reports, provides a snap shot international perspective and a mini tribute to Steve Jobs. WF-Economic-10072011 In my mind we have the ‘natural’ cycle that demands governments and consumers pay down debt and...
Households Increasingly Allocate Capital to Bonds & Cash
by on Oct 7, 2011 •We have got the bounce in equities with all those different indexes bang at their supports as indicated. CRB etc.. I have leverage in my main investment account and ‘loaded the boat’ as said in the forum pages. (For clarity i do still have pockets of cash which i will allocate on market opportunities and...
BOE Prints More.. & Much More to Come
by on Oct 6, 2011 •If you are surprised by this announcement i respectfully suggest you hit yourself firmly in the head and repeat over and over ‘ I am not a sheep, i am not a sheep, i am not sheep’. Rich http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-england-launches-more-quantitative-easing-2011-10-06-71040?dist=beforebell
‘Tax The Rich’ Is the Developed World’s New Mantra
by on Oct 6, 2011 •http://www.businessinsider.com/italy-announces-higher-taxes-2011-9 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/sep/16/spain-raises-tax-on-rich http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obama-proposes-new-taxes-on-wealthy-for-half-of-debt-plan/2011/09/19/gIQATnkNfK_story.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarroll/2011/jul/27/property-tax-ireland-poll-tax http://business.financialpost.com/2011/08/24/france-cuts-growth-forecasts-raises-taxes-on-rich/ Name a DM country and you will see initiatives to tax the ‘rich’. Democracies merely rely on the majority verdict. If the majority want to expropriate everything from one or other group they can and often vote it through especially if media services pump the political spin. I flagged this...
International Equities.. ‘The Only Show in Town’
by on Oct 1, 2011 •1) Corporate debt cheap and getting cheaper. The yield curve is flattening. Healthy corporate debt yields will likely fall alongside Treasury and MBS yields. 2) Corporate earnings to all other asset classes at extreme positive multiples. To cash or near cash companies yields are on multiples of 10 to 15. ie pes of 4 not...
Economic Indicators 30th Sept 2011 – WF pdf
by on Oct 1, 2011 •Here below the WF weekly economic indicator report. In summary, the data this week mixed but given the very bearish expectations entering the week the data was a little better than expected with a good surprise in US PMI data and durables. Having said this the data continues to be weak but not the ‘off...
Consumer Credit.. Signs of Life..
by on Sep 29, 2011 •http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/29/uk-mortgage-approvals-idUKTRE78S16A20110929 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/30-year-mortgage-at-record-low-401-2011-09-29-100200?link=MW_home_latest_news And in the Wells Fargo analysis we saw yesterday that US consumer credit has increased mainly due to a mini boom in student credit. http://globalbasic.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=447264&cust=global-basic&year=2011#top Rich
Key Inflection Point For Asset Markets
by on Sep 29, 2011 •We have found supports across many different asset markets from industrial metals to softs to equity markets. Vs this we have extreme political and central bank involvement in asset markets. Their actions are driving price potentially overwhelming the technical issues. Extreme spikes down are very possible therefore as the technical supports and up draft is...
Technical & Economic Indicators ‘TPPFs’ – (WellsF Report – Updated Friday/Sat Weekly)
by on Sep 28, 2011 •We all hopefully fully understand the difference between the fundamental nos and technical trading issues. In my opinion both elements are important to build an effective multi asset, multi fx investment and trading strategy. Anything less is to subject yourself to immense risk and therefore swings in returns. Happy to expand this discussion in the...