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Buy Stocks – ‘Intermediate Low – Buy Weakness’ UBS Update
by on Sep 27, 2011 •UBS are of the view that the low is likely in for this leg of the cyclical bear. They do leave the door open to a retest of the lows of this leg in the next week or so but recommend any such move as a ‘buying opportunity’. October rebound scenario. Sectors etc are in...
The EFSF Monster to be ‘Monetarily Super Charged’ via Debt (Inc BIS USD/Euro Credit, Update)
by on Sep 24, 2011 •Europe is at her inflection point. Germany must approve super charging the EFSF. She must sanction turning on the monetary monster created May 9th 2010. We have explained and investigated the rise of the euro bond through the EFSF before here: http://www.capitalsynthesis.tech/eurozone-greece-statement/ The EFSF is a new debt issuing entity. Her ‘capital’ is simply debt...
Dr Marc Faber Succinctly Summarizes on Reuters.. 22nd Sept
by on Sep 24, 2011 •Dr Faber’s track record is really something. Here on Reuters from the 22nd summing up the history and forward perspectives perfectly for us. “Globally something is awfully wrong”. http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=uidTWASIA&cid=265773&shareToken=MzpkMzJjMDcxNi03YTcyLTQ5YzAtYWEyZC05ZWY4Y2MyZGFiMjU%3D&start=0&end=303 “I think the US dollar will continue to strengthen”. “Meaningful slowdown in the Chinese economy coming. Will it collapse or slow down is a different issue....
Silver Loses 25% in Two Days..
by on Sep 23, 2011 •Post the non expansion of the Fed balance sheet silver has been the worse performing major asset class in the markets in the last 2 days. Silver futures today have dropped 17.7%. This represents their biggest one-day percentage decline since least 1984. Technically trading silver is a very dangerous business. I prefer to be a...
30 Year Treasuries at 3% Yield – Fed ‘Twists’ & Targets the Long End
by on Sep 21, 2011 •No expansion of the balance sheet. The Fed to: 1) Roll over expiring short term treasuries on to long term treasuries 2) To actively sell $400bn of short end treasuries and buy longer dated treasuries 3) To roll over mortgage back securities that the fed holds on her balance sheet to push mortgage rates lower....
UBS Technical Update – Cyclical Bear in Motion – Interim Final Leg Down in Next 2 weeks..
by on Sep 20, 2011 •Of course its all probabilities. The Nasdaq is in breakout to the upside. The UBS technical team are sticking to their bearish forecast of the final interim lows to occur at lower levels. A move above 1230 would negate the UBS view.. I cited 1210 SP500 which we are still struggling with. Lets see.. Rich...
Today Stagflation, Next Stop Hyper Inflation
by on Sep 18, 2011 •US jobless claims rise again this week. Manufacturing PMI data from across the world weakens as world wide inflation continues to surge as all measures of money supply surge upwards. Please join the dots folks. A tsunami of wealth transference has started and is progressively accelerating.. Please be ready and prepared. If you are still...
DX/Asset Prices – Inverse Correlation Breakdown – Opportunity or Threat?
by on Sep 16, 2011 •Its been “the” inverse correlation which has driven black box trading systems, hedge strategies, risk on and risk management trading systems of the last few years. Very simply as the dollar index declined asset prices rose, especially those assets priced in USDs ie commodities. Every correlation and inverse correlation must have some logical basis to...
UBS – Weekly Technical “Equity Capitulation – Entering Mature stage of the Bear Leg”.
by on Sep 14, 2011 •UBS aiming for 1020 as the possible downside target for sp500. In spite of the bearish call “don’t sell” is the UBS call ie simply a cyclical bear within the secular bull.. which mirrors my own view given the monetary ‘strategy’ which will be employed. (ie MONEY PRINTING). The UBS view, in summary, is that...
GOLD vs GOLD MINERS vs DOW
by on Sep 11, 2011 •Here below an interesting and useful chart. Gold continues to be the best performing asset in the market as she has been for a long period now. She breaks out when the dollar gains and when the dollar is debased. She breaks out when equity rises and when equity falls. She is for filling her...
Option Call Pricing Spreadsheet.. (please – a work in progress)
by on Sep 8, 2011 •Hi guys, many people have mailed as regards to more detail on options.. I am in the process of writing a pdf that will hopefully contain the key points re calls puts and covered options. All are very useful for particular market moments and should be a part of the arsenal of instruments we should...
UBS Technical Update – Continuation of Cyclical Bear, Near Term key Level SP500 1230, DX to rise.
by on Sep 8, 2011 •UBS-Weekly06-09 A pretty bearish report with no change to the sell the bounces view. A likely top for gold and tactical lows for equities coming end sept. Asian in process of making ‘final leg down’ before rejoining secular bull. Re Asia – “In the next 2 to 3 weeks we would prepare to start buying...