Morgan Stanley “Dangerously Close to Recession”
by on Aug 18, 2011 •MS, on the headline, seems to be shifting stance a little towards recessionary risks which would be U turn on their views expressed 10 days or so ago (report published here look for ‘MS rebuff to UBS’). But on closer reader MS have not changed their view that the US will not slip back into...
Markets – Summer Days..
by on Aug 17, 2011 •We are mid august with most of the pros back on holiday following the huge volatility of a few weeks ago subsiding for now. Asia markets calm over night and barely moving. US indexes seeing more volatility yesterday but retracing the 160 ticks lows (dow) and ending the session flat. Out of hours on the...
Morgan Stanley – Petrochemicals outlook & recommendations.. BASF (& refinery capacity projections)
by on Aug 16, 2011 •Morgan-Stanley – petrochemincals Morgan’s siting the usual suspects of India and China providing a game change to the petro chemicals industry. And here a view of the oil refineries currently under construction across Asia. These refineries will add 70mbpd for 2011 or an addition 1.5mbpd refinery capacity. By 2016 Asia will have added an additional...
“HFT” High Frequency Trading Example.. NLY
by on Aug 15, 2011 •Yet another wonderful example of the ‘unintended consequences’ of the policy makers desire for permanent market liquidity and zero interest rates. I see regulators and policy makers have been out this weekend calling for yet more regulation. This time for the use of such black box ambush systems. For the smart cash investor they present...
High Frequency Trading Boxes explains “sell off” volumes..
by on Aug 12, 2011 •From Bloomberg.. In my opinion this is the single most important news story of the week. This is very significant and explains everything in terms of the price action that i observed was ‘strange’. These trades are leveraged short term trades that are typically netted off at the end of the day. They bombard the...
UBS – Global Equities.. “Quality stocks within a balanced sector allocation”
by on Aug 12, 2011 •UBS preferring EM markets at these levels given the strong balance sheets of the em countries. Given the risk issues in the market the theme of ‘balanced’ cos with strong diversified earnings is coming forward again and again. UBS-08-Aug-2011 The pro risk trade is likely to continue to come off albeit we are still oversold...
Bloomberg News Sweep “Central bankers have so far been the tower of strength” Deutsche Bank AG
by on Aug 11, 2011 •Quick listing of some key news events. Clearly Deutsche Bank have a lot of underwater positions at present and so praising central bankers. Quite amusing.. lol. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-10/central-bankers-become-tower-of-strength-amid-debt-turmoil.html Copper demand rises out of China in spite of poor seasonal factors. The evidence is China will keep switching from USDs to buy hard commodities when prices drop....
Markets – Technical Glimmers of a near term Bottom.. (& Miners)
by on Aug 11, 2011 •Asia overnight.. same old same old.. weakness but not significant weakness.. An optimist would call Asian indexes calm albeit that they, nonetheless fell. (Shanghai aside – which managed to turn positive. I wouldn’t read too much into this yet. The technicals are a disaster although well oversold now). Its note worthy that as the cash...
Barclays Capital “Risk assets at “tipping point” large moves in either direction are possible”
by on Aug 11, 2011 •Playing in to what has been said in the forum pages Barcap coming forward and highlighting the danger and parallels to 2008. The momentum is clearly to the south side. If counter momentum moves are beating back again and again, over sold or not, these markets will crash downwards. This is starting to become the...
GOLD’s Parabolic Move Continues – $1800 an ounce
by on Aug 10, 2011 •Here Gold’s 2011 move. Gold is the best indicator in the markets on the problems with fiat toilet paper currencies. The problems are getting far worse not better. Hyper inflation lies ahead of us. Much civil unrest is to come. This is what the gold chart is telling us loudly and very clearly. Rich
Markets – Technical & Macro Comments & Actions.. (part I)
by on Aug 10, 2011 •Asia generally bounced overnight following the US equity bounce end of session but in many Asian markets the move was very weak. Given the oversold levels the Asian bounce looks to have more to run. Technically id point to the analysis here: http://www.stocktiming.com/Shanghai_Daily_Stock_Market_Updates/shanghai-index-update-monday.htm These sorts of analysis are, as always, probabilities. Government and central bank...