Fed “Exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013”
by on Aug 9, 2011 •The following is the full text of the statement following the Fed’s August meeting: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected. Indicators suggest a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and...
“We are just showing the rich people we can do what we want” BBC interviews UK Rioters
by on Aug 9, 2011 •http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-14458424 The UK has one of the highest inflation rates in the g10, one of the lowest first time buyer participation rates, one of highest public deficits yoy and one of the greatest wealth divides between ‘rich’ and ‘poor’. One in eight is on benefits in the UK with the highest rate of single parents...
GOLD GOING PARABOLIC
by on Aug 9, 2011 •http://www.flickr.com/photos/65045749@N04/6025196454/#/photos/65045749@N04/6025196454/lightbox/ And with many now calling for a massive qe3 program its hard to see how the move could break. Here Rogoff, another academic calling for “much more aggressive monetary policy however unpopular it might be”. It won’t be unpopular in wall street, that’s for sure. http://www.bloomberg.com/video/73684456/ Fed meeting today. If they announce QE3 it...
Barclays Capital – “Point of No Return” 1170 SP500 Weekly Close
by on Aug 8, 2011 •A very good technical view from Barcap across many instruments and asset classes released today. Inevitably such a view precludes any references to monetary matters, etc. This week an important one to this view on many instruments. A disasterous start of course. Barcap-Technical-Trends–8-8-11 Rich
Morgan Stanley – “Not Start of Cyclical Bear Market” (Rebuff to UBS)
by on Aug 8, 2011 •In an almost direct response to UBS Morgan’s beats the bull drum.. “History tells us that after corrections run their course and volatility peaks, forward equity returns are usually positive”. I’m not so sure about that call.. In truth what we need is more money printing, plain and simple. Thats the only thing that will...
CitiGroup – Water “The Single Most Important Asset Class”
by on Aug 8, 2011 •“Why water will eventually become the single most important physical commodity asset class”. Citi. My only problem with water is that, thus far, its been very difficult to make a return from investing capital into water businesses.. I know some posters on the board have worked in the water business before so perhaps we can...
Markets.. and macro thoughts/comments..
by on Aug 8, 2011 •Confusion continues to reign in the developed markets with inevitable over spill into the EM markets. Do we buy or sell the USD? Is the USD still a useful correlation for asset prices or not given its mainly composed of the relationship between the USD and the Euro? Both have negative interest rates. Both are...
UBS ‘Nails It’ – Congrats to UBS..
by on Aug 6, 2011 • UBS does a victory lap here below. They correctly called the levels, timing and end of the cyclical bull market. Well done to UBS. Looking ahead they don’t get any more bullish near term. They are calling for a big rally early Oct but don’t forecast a return to the secular bull until H2 2012...
Goldmans Asian Conglomerates – Buy Swire
by on Aug 6, 2011 •A friend kindly sent me the latest Goldman’s Asian roundup of particular Asian focused stocks. A timely round picking out the unloved conglomerates. I’ve been mentioning Swire for the last couple of weeks as showing particular value. Goldman’s own analysis showing a 80% discount to net asset value. They don’t mention the stella earnings and...
Markets..
by on Aug 5, 2011 •What a week its been and not the week to go on vacation it seems.. The sp500 has moved down 10% in the last 5 days. Dow around 8% or so. Oil has fallen by nearly 15% in the last week but was already more than 15% off her high of the year. Oil’s move...
Markets Friday Close
by on Jul 29, 2011 •Markets have closed. Its been volatile but no significant spikes down after the morning’s fireworks. We are at 12128 on the ym or exactly 100 ticks higher than the lows of the day and 1293 es or sp500 futures as i type i.e. no key levels have been broken. So we await our political masters...
UOB (United Overseas Bank) Q3 Japan Outlook
by on Jul 29, 2011 •Below the UOB Q3 2011 view for Japan. Japan continues to be an interesting market opportunity. We have several events that can occur at any moment inc inflation targeting for the BOJ, the replacement of her chairman and for much more monetization. The political stalemate continues in japan re the budget wranglings. The long awaited...