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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Overbought, Gold Basing” 23rd Nov16
by on Nov 24, 2016 •Another excellent week if you are involved in the long usd risk assets funded by borrowing other currencies. The Russell2000, Financials and Transports have provided the beta and in measured in the world currencies like jpy or euros or sgds they are up 15% in just a few weeks. Its a near vertical move and...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Buy Dips in Cyclicals” 16th Nov17
by on Nov 17, 2016 •The market continues to provide very strong bullish signals here. We have excellent breath in terms of number of stocks hitting new 52 week highs. The rotation to cyclical stocks supports the general reflationary theme with commodity related themes the alpha performers. The dollar continues upward across a range of currencies. Due to the Trump...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Risk Base Forming, Buy Weakness” 9th Nov16
by on Nov 9, 2016 •Its been a very significant week for risk markets. We have seen the complete reversal of the cyclical weakness themes vs defensive strength. Transports and Financials and other cyclical themes have moved from the negative beta to the positive beta. The evidence is compelling across asset classes. It is all due to fast rising inflationary...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Cash Testing 2120”
by on Nov 2, 2016 •After last week’s holiday from providing a release this week we have a bumper catch up release. We have major movements across risk asset markets. Equity indexes have a tactical correction in play with yesterday the Sp500 even breaking her 2120 level. But looking in more detail we can see the evidence of a sustained...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “More Tactical Weakness to Come” 19th Oct16 V2
by on Oct 19, 2016 •Its all about the US$, rates and US equity indexes. The dollar has broken out but needs to take a breath, rates have bounced considerably higher on the short end and following on from last week we have weakness in US equities but price has failed, as yet, to “break” key supports. We have a...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Make or Break” 12th October16
by on Oct 12, 2016 •Asset prices are moving. We appear to have moved beyond chop to something more meaningful, even for US equities. The best way to explain this is via the instruments. Particularly the US$ index and Bullion have given clear signals of something more meaningful than the recent low volatility price action. The two key reserve instruments...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Top Projection This Week” 4th Oct16
by on Oct 5, 2016 •Another week rolls past and this low volatility distribution continues for most asset classes, GBP and bullion aside. This is a very mature bull market so its no wonder that risk asset volatility has declined here close to achieving new highs for many. The divergence between US risk and world risk also continues. US is...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “More Distribution pre Oct Falls” 28th Sept16 V2
by on Sep 29, 2016 •Guys, ive been sailing and traveling and so posting this has been a little more complex than intended especially my internet down in the mountains. On the basis that markets wait for no one I post up the Swiss team’s latest comments with a v2 update to this to follow in the next 24hrs. The...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Near Term Bounce Before October Falls” – 20th Sept16 V2
by on Sep 22, 2016 •So we have the bounce in risk and this becomes an important point to check the technicals on the progress of this attempt to rejoin and sustain the bull trend. To recap, it is especially important across risk as we have 1) so many risk assets not confirming the recent higher highs ie transports, sox,...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – SPX 8 to 10% Correction to End Oct – 14th Sept16
by on Sep 14, 2016 •Volatility has indeed jumped and so summer is officially over. The Swiss team have made a significant shift in their forecasts and have called the important medium term top on risk markets as in. In the near term a bounce but unlikely to make much progress beyond prior price highs. They forecast in stead an...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – SP500 to 2250, Breakout US EU Banks 6th Sept16
by on Sep 6, 2016 •Its been a very shallow trading range over the last month or so. We have some momentum coming back into the market as is so often the case in early September. I’m traveling unfortunately but i bring the Swiss team’s comments that are in line with the recent technical picture. Today’s weakness in the US$...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – SP500 Vulnerable, Watch US$ & Rates & Japan 30th August16
by on Aug 30, 2016 •Its been an interesting week which seemed to strengthen those forecasting a stronger US$, higher rates and lower bond prices. This week the team have broadened their report to pick up on the very same issues I mentioned last week. They specifically highlight the very same USDSGD pair that i highlighted last week as in...