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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Sp500 Corrective Top” 18th May 2016
by on May 18, 2016 •The market has continued to chop up and the short term correlations are diverging from their medium and longer term correlations indication market indecision here (and for bears the end of the corrective bounce). Across asset classes we looking for direction here and volatility looks set to rise significantly from here in the coming weeks....
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 Minor Low Confirmed” – 11th May16
by on May 12, 2016 •Price moves are getting choppy here. We getting caught up between levels and instruments are losing their medium term correlations on the short term time frames. This is all indicative of a market losing direction. Its noteworthy that GS got stopped out of two of their recommended trades last week and have reentered again this...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SP500 2033/2022 As Initial Target” 4th May16
by on May 4, 2016 •Markets have moved lower and volatility has stepped up across fx and rest of world equities but alas not the US indexes as yet. US longs are not panicking as yet and so another micro bounce attempt at the recent resistance does appear likely again for US indexes. Currencies wise the US$ spiking down on...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Still A Distributive Top Building Process” 27th April16
by on Apr 27, 2016 •We have a complex multi asset technical stand off here with price not confirming either bear or bull camp either way here. And on initial price confirmation we have to also be prepared for a confirmation and then failure scenario as this is the classic formation for a momentum move. We have the Fed and...
Technical Analysis Cycles Update – Is It 1998 All Over Again? 24th April16
by on Apr 24, 2016 •Lets start with some words of wisdom from a man whose trading record makes him one of the modern trading masters. “I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong. I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes.” G.Soros. With these words in mind lets look at the price history here as most certainly market...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Highs in Risk This Week Setting up Significant Correction” 19th April16 V3
by on Apr 20, 2016 •Back in Dec15 when the bear move started, it was pretty clear that the move was early and needed to be tested before this multi year bull market was truly toast. On the most recent wave of the risk rebound we needed to get to a rally point where the early bears would be throwing...
A Brave New World in Synthesis..
by on Apr 15, 2016 •Anyone that does any macro thinking at present surely arrives at some very strange states of new realities. One small example. Central banks, given unlimited powers, will be the ultimate buyer of all assets. Given Nirp (negative interest rate policy) and a constant high bid on the order books by the buyer of last resort...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Markets Vulnerable” 5th April16
by on Apr 6, 2016 •Another week rolls by. Asset classes, sp500 and nas100 aside, are confirming the bearish macro landscape for risk assets and continuation of the cyclical bear. Without a new price breakout by key US sectors and indexes the issue remains a timing one for when the bear across all risk assets will resume. Indeed if the...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “SPX Tactically Toppish” 29th March16
by on Mar 30, 2016 •Another week quickly comes around and the major macro event, following on from the ultra easy ECB, was the soothing dovish Fed. Price has reacted positively for the bulls with the sp500 making margin new highs. World indexes not confirming the move although currency adjusted it looks better as the US$ has weakened a little....
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Take Profits Across Equities” 23rd March16
by on Mar 23, 2016 •Its too early to call the top but we are very very close to confirmation across instruments. http://www.capitalsynthesis.tech/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/es.jpg We have the sp500 losing upward momentum, weak breadth, contrarian put call, dropping volatility vixx, negative divergence on price, we have a renewed us$ bounce and a big bounce at over sold levels vs many commodity currencies...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Risk Corrective Top In Sight” 16th March16
by on Mar 16, 2016 •Risk assets continue to build to an important and profitable corrective top from their over sold bounce earlier in Q1. I’m taking gradually taking profits on risk, though not precious metals, at the higher levels of the top of this very recent distribution. Unfortunately i cant bring many meaningful technical comments of my own as...
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Weekly Technical Analysis – “Bounce in Risk Close to Completion” 8th March16
by on Mar 9, 2016 •Price action has been steady with no fireworks, only oil aside. Its an interesting report again this week from the guys. The correction from over sold levels across risk has occurred more powerfully and rapidly than the Swiss team expected. They have therefore shifted their timing model forward reading the recent moves as an impulsive...