SBank have a reputation to keep in the commodities space. Their latest quarterly is pretty bearish.

The secular commodities bull is being called into question here with the 2011 highs mostly lower than their 2007 highs and the cyclical continuation running deeper and longer than most commodity participants anticipated.

There is nothing on the horizon to alter this view for the moment. The monetary and demand picture remains weak, for now. On a brighter note they don’t anticipate downward momentum to increase in the quarter. At worst dead money is the forecast.

My own allocations have long taken this view. For now the super cycle sleeps. In my monetary events will eventually drive capital to the commodity asset class, but not yet. Let sleeping dragons lie, for now.

Here the report from the team:

SBank-Qtly-Commodities-Q413

Rich

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