We all hopefully fully understand the difference between the fundamental nos and technical trading issues. In my opinion both elements are important to build an effective multi asset, multi fx investment and trading strategy. Anything less is to subject yourself to immense risk and therefore swings in returns. Happy to expand this discussion in the forum area.
Its very hard work as a single trader, even as a co-operative of independent traders, to systematically gather the various data points month on month needed. From both a technical basis and economic indicator basis the work needed is overwhelming. Its too easy to drop something from the methodology due to time constraints. This scuppers the whole approach as it becomes inconsistent and therefore prone to error. Life, as we know, can get in the way. There are fortunately all manner of external TPPFs (Third Party Proprietary Feeds) available to provide this data in a structured and timely manner. I have survey the TPPFs to this end.
No technical or fundamental methodology will ever fit perfectly onto your own individual approach but some are a closer fit than others. I would comment that so long as the methodology is consistent you may be surprised by the results of even a limited set of indicator points.
Technically wise, I will expand the technical updates but for now i like the proprietary UBS updates. As said, no technical methodology will ever map perfectly to your own of reading of surveying the technical issues. The UBS technical approach is wide enough to be robust. Its systematic and therefore repeatable. They stick to their methodology and ignore geopolitics and news events. We can overlay these elements for ourselves.
What is lacking from my own practice and so this site is a systematic regular review of the fundamental data. for the economic indicators just as we do for the technicals. Hard structure is needed to ensure the systematic monitoring of the fundamental indicators and nos.
To this end, I have been reading and reviewing the weekly fundamental summary of the key economic indicators from Wells Fargo over the last month or so. I’m sufficiently impressed to add their weekly pdf updates to CS. I keep an open mind on substituting for another feed subject to this being reliable, effective and beyond litigation issues re republishing laws. (Merril Lynch were most unhappy to see their private client reports on this website so i’ve had to remove their recent reports on Oil and Gold. A lawyer from ML has kindly been in touch to inform me of their copy write rules – lol). I’m hoping Wells are a little more helpful.
The main stream central banks and systemic pillars eg the OCED, FED, BOE, IMF, BIS etc are generally behind the curve but for reference provides a fairly global chart of the key leading indicators updated on a monthly basis. Here the OECD
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=MEI_CLI
Here the WF weekly fundamental indicators, Ill update subject to no legal issue in a few days.
As i say, ill keep looking out for what i consider to be the most consistent third party methodology of the monitoring of economic indicators. I’m more interested in the raw data than the ‘correctness’ of the commentary in this respect. Consistent monitoring of the ‘right’ indicators and weighting these in a consistent manner is very important imo.
As a data update to the report from WF above the two data sets this week re US consumer survey and the new housing starts were both weak. One in line with WF view one worse. Either way not good. The data continues to worsen in general.. Today the US consumer durables nos inc capital goods nos. Just released and surprisingly better reflecting the strong corporate position no doubt. Actual -0.1%.. consensus -0.4%. WF -0.9%.
As a comment on the data within the WF report.. take a look at the US student loan outstanding loans chart. It has doubled from 2010. $150bn has been pumped into the system from student loans alone in the last year. They have increased exponentially from 2010. Student loans (like immigrant debt) is an excellent way to increase consumer lending (money supply). Both students and immigrants (also like the US black community) have very little to lose from adding debt. These are all segments of consumer’s who take very little encouragement to increase debt. They are therefore a key target for US and European money supply expansion programs.
In the UK mid 2012 all new nurses must have a degree. They are to be offered interest free loans. This will involve hundreds of workers needing debt before they can work in the public sector. This is a very expansionary monetary policy and could even be successful to ‘stimulate’ a cycle of money supply growth in the wider economy as ‘education’ related jobs are created. As we may recall from New Labour’s discussions around policy strategies.. ‘education spending has excellent multiplier effects’. This is very true and it is especially stimulative if the additional spend is simply from zero interest debt or (money printing effectively).
All good stuff.. the very best
Rich
(5 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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