The German team maintain the most likely out come of this rally is for gold to be capped at her resistance of 1803 and silver at 35.5. They have now entered a few words on what would occur if these go. In essence the 1900 would come into play quickly but they maintain this is an unlikely technical outcome. Their view of the high prob trade is for the 1803 level to hold and on failure to breakout for a mild retrace to occur as per their medium term neutral stance. (Their “stretch” on the gold level would be 1815 note). Also apologies for publishing today. They keep moving the issue day around which is annoying.
I continue to be less bearish and neutral than the German team. Today’s move doesn’t look meaningful to me. Working off short term overbought only, in my view. We have plenty of bid at present. Multiple asset classes are joining and the US$ is getting beaten up nicely. The pm over bought technicals have come down a little. Lets see how the next wave develops. I’m maintaining exposure, running instruments at the resistances. Im looking for the breakout but ill monitor price at the level and see how things develop. I’m particularly looking to see if participants significantly take profits here or if sellers emerge. The commercial long short positions will assist with this reading as will the price action. A big level approaches. Gold and silver miners pushing on. Key resistances approaching for the gdx at 56 and then 58. If these two go it bodes very well indeed but first things first, the levels.
BullionWeeklyTechnicals01102012
All the best
Rich
(4 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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