The Swiss team’s report listed below.
World markets are continuing to show remarkable resilience in spite of all the indicators pointing to likely price weakness and even a correction. The team have pushed out their deeper correction timeline to Q1 2014 now given the likely higher high by the s&p500. Near term, they are now forecasting a shallow retrace for the SP500 into Oct rather than anything more meaningful.
The list of weakening indicators seems to grow every week. Price momentum work, 52 week highs on all indexes inc even tech, stocks above 50 dmas.
http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp500-vs-nyse-stocks-new-highs-params-3y-x-x-x/
Sectors wise the cyclicals are leading the charge again but the US cyclicals much weaker than their European counter parts. US finance, home builders, consumer discretionary, Dow transports, tech sector have not broken to the upside yet. The semi conductors and industrials have but that”s about it for the moment aside from health care due to Obama’s health care reforms. In the euro zone autos, finance, tech, retailers and industrials have all broken out in terms of price. But even here there exists bearish divergence as well across european indexes inc the dax and cac40 both producing a sequence now of lower highs in terms of 52 week prices as well falling 50 dmas etc just as their US counter parts.
The dollar basket is threatening to break down which would, in theory be positive commodities – if the move sustains.
The market is becoming technically more and more fragile and time goes on it seems but is still missing some crucial knock out blow. Until this occurs it appears to be able to drift up on an ever lower number of stocks rising.
I’m out of time but here, without more delay the Swiss team’s excellent report.
All the best
Rich
(18 votes, average: 4.89 out of 5)
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