The Swiss team maintain their bearish stance. They are ignoring all the fundamental news re debt growth etc. Purely from the technicals they are calling a near term top. SP500 futures currently at 1290 so getting very close to their sell level.
As we sit here today it looks a bold call having many pros in the market sit this rally out. Could the sitters capitulate and join the party to keep this rally running? Its a tricky call to make but given the recent over bullish sentiment readings the 1300 level looks tempting to either take some profit, hedge or at the very least play a bounce down off the resistance.
The analysts, like many now, are making great use to sentiment surveys. Particulalry the AAII from jan05 showing excessive bullishness. Like everything in investment and technical analysis the devil is in the detail. Please be very careful of these surveys as a tool in analysis. Imo, these surveys need to be looked at closely. I notice hedge fund managers are excessively bearish not bullish from their recent allocations yet this is the opposite data from the AAII survey. Here an article on the AAII survey and comment from Columbia.
“From a strict, statistical perspective, the AAII’s survey is “pretty much useless,”
David Madigan, professor and head of the Department of Statistics at Columbia University
Note all im doing here is flagging the issue of detail. Simply this.
http://buckinghamreport.squarespace.com/issues/aaii-crunching-the-numbers.html
All the best
Rich
(5 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
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