Ok, attached below the latest view from the Swiss tech team. Another great report and nothing in the last week has invalidated their view on the major asset markets which ties in to my own views as documented on the forum boards.
US index Sp500 false breakout. Rus2000 failure and looking very weak. Sub sector weakness with no new higher highs in all the major indexes. Simply a few issues created the false breakout. Euro indexes and inter market sectors bounced but a very weak bounce which fails to convince or confirm any sustainable strength. Commodity weakness and generally deflationary theme coming through. The bullion market surprising weakness but nothing yet has invalidated that a near term bottom is very close and that the bullion bull market is intact.
I’d only like to add instrument selection now with such volatility in key bullion markets is key. Option calls are a more expensive tool than futures but in extreme volatility where clinical entries are impossible i would encourage all to explore the instrument. All you can lose is your premium with such instruments. 80% of the time you will be wrong but the gearing is so high and (especially in volatile huge secular bull markets) the upside is so great that the instrument, at present, is an ideal tool to use. Options are useful (and most profitable) in highly volatile markets after a period of distribution. These are exactly the circumstances we have in the bullion markets right now which. Any questions on these instruments come back in the forum pages. Here is also not the place to go into the detail of the open interest issues on the bullion nor the comex physical supply issues but the issues are real, large and potentially game changing.
Ill leave the immediate technical detail to the report but happy to discuss option and OI, order book and physical bullion issues on the forum.
I also include the German team’s more limited (though nonetheless useful) tech report on the Bullion
BullionWeeklyTechnicals-12042013
Also on the macro front, an excellent report slightly surprisingly from WF. I say this as usually they are guilty, in my view, of coloring their reports towards a pro US centric view of the world. But on this occasion, in discussing the longer term horizon, they are unusually open about the issues facing the US and developed world economies. The report attempts to seek historical precedents for where we find ourselves and explores the keynesian counter cyclical strategy. It concludes we have moved well beyond the keynesian model, as we also concluded several years ago. We have an all together more virulent strain of neo keynesianism. The report makes pretty bleak reading. Don’t sell your gold folks.
Here the WF report: Fiscal Policy Model 04152013
And finally. An investment area of mine and many on this website i believe, in the last few years, has been Singapore and her currency. I therefore include the quarterly macro update from WF on the Singapore economy.
Singapore GDP_Q1-2013 _ 04152013
Instruments and detail on the forum as usual.
All the best and onwards we march.
Rich
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