Weekly Technical Comments – “S&P500 Moving to an Important Medium-Term Top, Cycles Imply a Top This Week”

The Swiss team’s latest report below.

They retain their bearish call on equities and significantly call for a top in cyclical stocks and a re-rotation back into the defensive issues.

Their words, also mine on the forum pages:

“Make or Break Setup in US Cyclical Performance”

This issue cuts to the core of the sustainability of higher rates, quantitative easing , consumption, credit cycles, etc etc. Its the elephant in the room as regards to whether we have a real recovery or merely a hunt for yield driven by deficits, super easy money and central bank money creation. In short the market technicals are hitting some key macro headwind issues here. When the two collide usually it produces a market defining moment. New cyclical trends are normally defined by such moments. Ie we are getting to an important market moment here summer or not.

Levels wise S&P500:

“A close below 1687 would be initially negative and a close below 1671 would imply that a more important trading top is in
place”.

I’ll leave all the detail to the guys inside their report. Lets pick up on the individual points and cross examine them on the forum pages.

Timing is everything. We have a very powerful bull run here sponsored by governments and central bankers alike. Lets not be too fast to pull any hedging or out right short triggers here. Detail detail and careful consideration is all important in these matters.

Here the Swiss team’s weekly report:

UBSTAWeekly23-07

And at this critical moment in technical and macro issues here some of the world’s most respected third party reports.

Here the SC, H2 outlook. Not in the last four years has an H2 been more controversial.

Global-Market-Outlook-July-2013

Here Citi’s H2 calls. Some brave and interesting calls here inc dow 10,000.